Assessment of environmental effects in the petrochemical industry using the Prometheus model

Dissertation

To obtain a Master's degree

Environmental-Natural Resources Engineering

Abstract:

Development impact assessment is a process that identifies, identifies, It predicts, evaluates and reduces the effects of development projects. Determining the importance of environmental effects is one of the most important concerns of the process of evaluating environmental effects in plans and projects, which mainly depends on the multi-criteria nature of this issue. In fact, the importance of an environmental effect is determined by several other criteria in addition to the intensity of the effect. In recent years, several types of multi-criteria decision-making methods have been proposed to evaluate the effects of development. The aim of the present research is to use the Prometheus method by considering several factors in determining the importance of the effect in evaluating the effects of the development of the petrochemical industry with the aim of investigating the efficiency of this method from the family of meta-ranking methods. In this process, after collecting the physical, chemical, biological and socio-economic data of the study area, the desired criteria in determining the importance of the extraction effect and their importance were weighted by the questionnaire tool by petrochemical experts and related organizations using the entropy method. After determining the classes of environmental effects, each criterion was placed in one of these classes based on the weight assigned to it. Then, the steps of implementing the Prometheus method, including forming the evaluation matrix in two phases (construction and operation), determining the superiority functions and performing calculations in the superiority functions, were implemented. Then the degree of desirability of each option compared to other options was obtained by calculating the net flow of prioritization. Finally, the options available in each phase were ranked relative to each other. Also, the ranked options were compared with the results of the Pastaccia method. The results of the current research show the efficiency and effectiveness of the Prometheus method in evaluating the effects of development in comparison with the traditional and usual methods of evaluating the environmental effects in Iran.

Key words: evaluation of the effects of development, fuzzy logic, petrochemical industry, Prometheus superorder method

Introductory research overview:

Problem outline:

Throughout history, human effects on the environment have been insignificant, but during the last 200 years, especially after the industrial revolution, these effects have increased. Currently, the world is facing an ecological crisis, the dimensions of which are expanding day by day, and as time passes, scientific evaluation and monitoring provide a more accurate and clearer picture of the signs of ecological destruction all over the planet (Jaafari, 2010). Oil and petrochemical industry is one of the most important industries in Iran. For the first time, the petrochemical industry emerged in the United States, and Americans used the term petrochemical [1] for raw materials derived from oil, and then in Europe and other countries, the use of petroleum materials as primary raw materials began. In Iran, for the first time in 1343, the National Petrochemical Industries Company affiliated to the National Iranian Oil Company was established and started its activities in this field from the industry. In fact, the petrochemical industry in Iran is about half a century old (Kialan, 2012). Petrochemical industries are potentially considered as one of the biggest sources of environmental pollution. Today, controlling and reducing the effects of pollution caused by petrochemical industries in order to protect the environment is one of the most important issues and concerns of the nations of the world. The major environmental problems of these industries, especially in the conditions of non-compliance with environmental rules and standards, bring dangerous consequences and disrupt the biological nature and human societies as well as wildlife. Environmental impact assessment [2] is proposed as a tool for planning and environmental management of development projects (Watern, 2001). There are many methods to evaluate the environmental effects, to choose the right method for each project, one should pay attention to a set of conditions and characteristics, such as the characteristics of the method, the characteristics of the environment, and the nature of the project (Manouri, 2014. Salehi and Moradi, 2015).The purpose of environmental impact assessment is to identify and systematically evaluate the potential effects of projects, programs, plans, policies and laws on the physical, chemical, biological, cultural and economic-social components of the environment. This concept also includes some considerations and suggested actions to discount projects and programs. The first goal of evaluating environmental effects is to encourage planners and decision-makers to look at and pay attention to the environment and ultimately succeed in carrying out measures that are compatible with the environment (Agricultural Economy and Development, 2015).  Environmental impact assessment is actually a process that includes detection, prediction, assessment and mitigation of biophysical, social and other similar effects resulting from developments proposed by decision makers and commissions (1999 IAIA[3]). This process is designed to ensure that the impacts of developments are well understood and accounted for before they are implemented. This evaluation causes all the effects and environmental consequences to be considered by weight or other economic and social effects during the implementation of development plans. If this stage is done well, its benefit will be determined in the same planning stage. Another advantage of this process is that it makes a better decision about the desired plan (Kaya and Kahrman, 2011).  

Given that development and the environment are two inseparable issues, it is necessary to obtain and use environmental management tools to minimize damage to resources and the environment in all development programs. But not paying attention to the short-term and long-term consequences of various projects will mainly cause major problems for humans and nature (Makhdoom, 2014 and 2015). The evaluation of the environmental effects of development is one of the efficient methods that identify and reduce the negative effects by identifying the project activities and the environment of the study area (Jaafari and Lotfi, 2013). This method can also be used as a tool for planning available to managers, planners and decision-makers, based on which it is possible to identify the potential environmental effects that appear as a result of the implementation of construction and industrial projects and solve them by presenting different options (Salehi and Karimi, 2016). It seems that the main problem in this process is that the impact assessment methods are not able to categorize the qualitative information of nature, therefore, to solve this problem, the qualitative information is relatively converted into a numerical scale (Manuri, 2014). Recently, multi-criteria decision-making methods[4] have been widely used in various scientific fields in order to make appropriate decisions, taking into account the set of criteria, among which the importance of environmental effects in the assessment of environmental effects can be mentioned (Khodabakhshi, 2019; Simanavisen and Astinovikos, 2010). In fact, the multi-criteria decision-making method has been introduced to express both qualitative and quantitative terms in the decision-making process, by presenting a quantitative systematic method in order to reduce the ambiguities and problems of human subjective judgments (Kaya and Kahrman, 2011. Mendoza and Prabo, 2003). In multi-indicator models, the choice is usually made either by determining the acceptable level for the criteria or by comparing the options (Asgharpour, 2017; Wang and Yun, 1981). Due to the nature of environmental impact assessment, multi-indicator models are useful in this process.

Prometheus method[7] is a structured preference ranking method that is used for ranking. This method for solving multi-indicator problems starts with a decision matrix and provides a partial priority relationship for ranking options through pairwise comparison of non-ranked input and output streams (Mirghfouri et al., 2013). Therefore, according to the nature of the environmental impact assessment process, the use of this method in determining the importance of the effects of each of the activities in the projects is justified. The use of environmental impact assessment as one of the environmental management tools emphasizes the necessity of using this approach for large construction projects such as exploration, construction and commissioning of oil fields and related equipment (Kanter, 2003).