Contents & References of Short-term load forecasting of Mazandaran province using expert systems
List:
1-1) The importance of power system load forecasting. 5
1-1-1) Examining the importance of load forecasting from a technical point of view. 5
1-1-2) Examining the importance of load forecasting from an economic point of view. 6
1-2) Solutions..8
1-3) Load forecasting from the perspective of time periods. Duration. 10
1-3-3) Short-term planning. 10
1-3-4) Momentary planning / a few minutes to a few hours. 10
1-4) Effective factors in predicting electric load. 11
1-4-1) Climatic factors.. 12
1-4-2) Economic factors.. 12
1-4-3) The effect of time on consumption. 12
- Summary and conclusion. 12. Chapter Two: Modeling Methods 2-1) Prediction. 16. Title Page 2-2) Prediction Accuracy. 16. 2-3) Measurement Error in Prediction. 17
2-4) Forecasting methods. 17
2-4-1) Time series method..18
2-4-2) Regression method.. 26
2-4-3) Load forecasting using independent statistics. 27
2-4-4) Final consumption method
28
2-4-5) land use method.29
2-4-6) neural method..30
2-5) short-term forecasting of Mazandaran province using regression method.38
2-5-1) fitting the regression model in the SAS environment.38
2-5-2) analysis of the results of the regression model.41
- Summary and conclusion. 44
Chapter 3: Fuzzy modeling
3-1) Necessity of using fuzzy expert system for load forecasting. 47
3-2) Membership functions.. 49
3-3) Design steps of a fuzzy system. .52
Title
3-4) Application of MATLAB software. 55
3-4-1) Membership function editor (The Membership function editor). 59
3-4-2) The Rule editor. 63
3-4-3) The Rule viewer. 64
3-4-4) The surface viewer. 65
Chapter 4: Fuzzy model design for short-term load forecasting in Mazandaran province
4-1) Fuzzy model design for short-term load forecasting. 68
4-1-1) Specifying inputs, outputs and the method used for de-fuzzification. 68
4-1-2) Determining fuzzy sets and membership function for inputs and outputs. 70
4-1-3) Branching rules by recognizing fuzzy sets. 76
4-1-4) Validation and Revision of rules. 81
Chapter five: conclusions and suggestions
Conclusion. Sh., "The use of fuzzy systems in short-term forecasting of electric load on certain working days and holidays". 8th Intelligent Systems Conference, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. Shahrivar 86
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