Investigating the effective factors of road accidents in Ardabil province; A case study of the Ardabil-Maghan axis

Dissertation for Master's Degree in Executive Management

Marketing and Export Orientation

Abstract:

This research seeks to investigate and identify the causes and factors affecting the occurrence or severity of road accidents in Ardabil-Maghan axis, in line with which the relationship between road, human, environmental and vehicle variables with the occurrence of accidents and accidents in the said axis is studied.   The present research method is a descriptive method with an analytical approach. Descriptive and inferential statistics indicators have been used to analyze the obtained statistical data. Inferential statistics such as Friedman and average tests were used for field surveys of the questionnaire and in the analytical review of the data obtained from the questionnaire, and the t-test was used to test the significance of the hypotheses and Cronbach's alpha method was used to measure the reliability of the questions. This research identified the main cause of accidents on the Ardabil-Maghan axis in the first step and identified the qualitative and technical issues of the road, and according to the interviewees, the dangerous bends of the road, narrow road width, road quality and insufficient signs are the main causes of accidents on the said axis. After that, human factors are in the second place, among which speed and unauthorized overtaking, left deviation and haste and acceleration are among the human causes of accidents on the mentioned axis, with the explanation that the two factors of speed and unauthorized overtaking regardless of groupings are in the first list The impact factors are the mentioned axis. The technical and qualitative factors of the car are in the third place and finally the environmental and natural factors are in the fourth category. Also, the hypotheses related to the relationship between the mentioned factors and accidents in the mentioned axis have been proven, except for the environmental factors whose significance has not been confirmed. Research

1-1-Statement of the problem:

Transportation and transit of goods and passengers is considered one of the infrastructure sectors in the economy of every country, so that this phenomenon is considered as one of the main indicators of the development of countries today. The mass production of cars as well as the increasing growth of roads and communication routes has been the driving force of this sector. But since the beginning of the automobile, mankind has faced a crisis called accident, which is undoubtedly one of the biggest problems and threats to public health in the world. According to the report of the World Health Organization[1], in recent years, traffic accidents have been recognized as the ninth cause of death in the world and the second cause in Iran, and have also brought significant costs to the economy of countries. In less developed countries, due to major weaknesses in the management of road accidents, this problem becomes more pathetic. Because the inappropriate quality of the roads, lack of sufficient and effective supervision, low per capita income and the use of worn out and depreciated cars in the transport fleet, among other factors, have aggravated the occurrence of road accidents in these countries.  Based on the evaluations, more than 75% of road accidents occur in developing countries and countries in transition, while such countries have only 32% of motor vehicles. On the other hand, in these countries, along with the increase in vehicles, the required transportation infrastructure has not been improved accordingly. In addition to that, vehicle safety standards and road network security have not had a growing trend.  This mismatch between the desire to mechanize urban life and the infrastructure required for it has led us to witness the rising trend of accidents and casualties in developing countries.

Comparing between developed and developing countries, it can be said that despite the high rate of ownership of motor vehicles, industrialized countries have learned to some extent how to deal with the phenomenon of increasing the number of cars and users over the past half century, and the correct driving culture has been institutionalized. But the developing countries have not used this opportunity for various reasons, and currently many of these countries are facing a serious and worsening problem of road accidents and the resulting casualties, and the existing opportunities have turned into serious threats.  Also, despite the expansion of transportation systems in developing countries, unfortunately, few measures have been taken to prevent road accidents or reduce their severity. In these countries, despite the high rate of accidents, there are not enough resources to save the lives of the injured and help those who have suffered permanent disabilities as a result of these accidents. (Aiti, 1388). Iran, as a vast and populous country, but without an adequate and modern railway network, has caused a heavy load of freight and passenger transportation (more than 90%) on the non-rail road network. Our urban and suburban road network is suffering from severe weakness in terms of quantity, quality and maintenance, and this situation, combined with ignorance and lack of public education, worn out fleet, severe disorder in traffic and non-compliance with traffic rules, weak emergency services and the lack of a national determination to deal with this dangerous phenomenon, has created a situation where anyone who steps on the roads and streets of our country, practically exposes himself to a high risk of being killed or has caused a catastrophic event.

In the study of studies, the factors that are involved in the occurrence of these accidents are mostly divided into four general headings: road, environment, vehicle and human factor, and each of these factors includes various sub-sections.  Among the main elements of the accident, the human factor is the most influential element. Therefore, it is logical that the relevant organizations, and above all the society, focus all their efforts on human factors.  On the other hand, it can be clearly claimed that accidents are a social, economic and cultural phenomenon that has been neglected in most planning related to this issue in our country today.  As Professor Ogden [2] in the book Safer Roads [3] considers the main reason for curbing accidents and the resulting waste in developed countries to be the systematic approach of these countries to this issue. And instead of attributing the accident to the last cause (the last link in the chain), he expresses the accident as a complementary link in the chain of effective causes and effects. Human factors (individual characteristics of the driver, skill, ability, etc.), the road (geometric characteristics of the road, quality characteristics of the road, symptoms, etc.), the car or vehicle (wear and tear, technical defects, etc.) and the environment (atmospheric and climatic conditions) were divided, which, as in the diagram below, these factors are connected to each other in a chain and form an interconnected and at the same time complex process.

(Diagrams are available in the main file)

As can be seen in the above diagram, in addition to having a direct impact on the occurrence of accidents, the four factors mentioned above systematically and by influencing each other, intensify the occurrence of accidents in a chain-like manner and with double synergy and form a deadly and destructive cycle of accidents. A major part of the province's cargo and passenger transit is in charge of this area, and it is considered one of the high-traffic axes of the province's transportation network. Therefore, this research aims to investigate and study the causes and effective factors that have a direct impact on the incidence or severity of road accidents in the Ardabil-Maghan axis in the form of the four variables mentioned (human, road, environment and vehicle). Also, in addition to considering the main factors affecting traffic accidents, the present study also includes local and regional indicators in the investigations. Indicators that, in turn, can have a serious and potential contribution to the above-mentioned driving-related accidents and incidents. 1-2- Necessity of conducting research: Today, the issue of driving accidents and the occurrence of many accidents are considered a serious threat to public health, and its harmful and harmful effects on the bodies of societies are very evident. Currently, the number of road accidents in our country is increasing. Due to the vastness of the country, population growth, increase in vehicle ownership and as a result of the increase in intra- and extra-regional exchanges, traffic accidents have become one of the most important problems in the transportation sector of the country and subsequently the province.