Forecasting the position of competitiveness and car production in global markets and its relationship with the development of financial markets

Dissertation of Master's Course in Industrial Management, Financial Orientation

Abstract

The vision document and the general policies that govern it is a document that was announced by the Supreme Leader and it has been pointed out that it is mandatory, therefore it is a mandatory document. Considering that the main goal of the vision document 1404 is to achieve the first economic, scientific and technological position in the Southwest Asia region with an emphasis on the software movement and science production, rapid growth, relative improvement of the level of per capita income, achieving full employment and so on. and on the other hand, the development of financial markets is the engine of economic growth and progress and is of great importance. For this reason, in this research, the current position of financial market development indicators in the world economy has been examined according to the report of the World Economic Forum, and by using a new decision-making method and forecasting the current position of Iran's economic, commercial and financial competitiveness in the world economy and the gap to the realization of the goal (achieving the first economic position in the region) has been calculated, and also by predicting the position of other countries using their 11 reports, the economic ranking of Iran with regard to the year It has been determined to the vision document 1404 so that by using the results of this research, the extent of the gap in the current time to achieve the goals can be determined, so that with more effort and determination, the orientations can be modified and rebuilt and economic, political and cultural strategic planning explained. The share of the automobile industry is in the GDP, and after oil exports, due to foreign exchange savings and improvement in the export process, it plays a significant role in the gross domestic product and as a result of the development of financial markets and finally improving Iran's competitive and economic position in the world.) Paying attention to this industry is important and vital to be on the path of progress, development and excellence, and it facilitates the achievement of the goals of the vision document 1404.

[1]. Gross Domestic Product

Introduction

Even though many efforts have been made during the last century in the direction of economic reforms and the beginning of a period of continuous and pioneering economic prosperity in Iran, but a sure path to reach an advanced and economically prosperous Iran has not yet been achieved, and for this reason, the achievements of economic reforms have not been sufficient to provide national satisfaction. Reza Shah's imperial economic reform period from 1305 to 1320 and Mohammad Reza Shah's economic reform period during the 1940s, despite the expansion of infrastructure, took Iran's national economy off its natural and scientific path. But there is still a long distance from a prosperous society and a favorable economy. The period of structural reforms during the first decade of the revolution led to the nationalization of the economy, and between 1976 and 1984, which led to the liberalization of the economy, and the period of national construction economic reforms in 1968 and 1976 were many and commendable efforts, but they did not reach the desired end.

One of the most important problems of the economic transformation program in Iran is the lack of clarity about Iran's future vision and transformative economic policies, with the help of which there is a national desire and determination to consolidate energies and The direction of activities and a comprehensive and all-round program in the direction of a desirable and specific future for the Iranian society should be created. Iran's national vision document was approved in 1382 after five years of study and discussions in the commissions and the council of the Expediency Council, and the policies of principle 44 were presented to the leader of the Islamic Revolution in 1983 and 1984, and after his amendment and approval, they were communicated to the three powers to guide the country's medium-term activities and programs. It has been pointed out that it is mandatory, that is why it is a binding document. Considering that the main goal of the vision document 1404 is to achieve the first economic, scientific and technological position in the Southwest Asia region with an emphasis on the software movement and science production, rapid growth, relative improvement of the level of per capita income, achieving full employment and so on. and on the other hand, the development of financial markets is the driving engine of economic growth and progress and is of great importance.For this reason, in this research, the current position of financial market development indicators in the world economy has been examined according to the report of the World Economic Forum, and by using a new decision-making method and forecasting the current position of Iran's economic, commercial and financial competitiveness in the world economy and the extent of the gap until the achievement of the goal (achieving the first economic position in the region) has been calculated. The extent of the gap in the current time to achieve the goals should be determined so that with more effort and determination, the orientations can be revised and restructured and economic, political and cultural strategic planning explained. In the export process, it plays a significant role in the gross domestic product and the results of the development of the financial markets and ultimately improving the competitive and economic position of Iran in the world.) Paying attention to this industry is important and vital for being on the path of progress, development and excellence, and it facilitates the achievement of the goals of the vision document 1404. Last year, it was ranked 13th in the world in terms of car production volume. (World Automakers, 2010) and therefore paying attention to this industry and increasing the volume of manufactured cars will lead to the development and improvement of the gross national product, the development of markets and ultimately the improvement of Iran's economic competitive position; therefore, the examination of Iran's position in this industry with regard to its relationship with the development of financial markets, as well as the forecast of the volume of automobile production by countries according to the volume of their 10-year productions and the determination of Iran's position in 1404 according to the vision document of 1404 and achieving the goal of producing 3 million cars in The year is very important compared to other car manufacturing countries.

Although the realization of any vision begins with the present and the present, but the formulation of visions always begins with the premise that structural changes and the formation of conditions completely different from the current situation, in the time period of a vision, are possible and sufficiently promising and motivating.

If to harvest tomorrow's crop, its seeds must be planted today; So, in order to be among the advanced countries in the near future, the seeds of progress and development must be spread in the hearts of the people of Iran today. In this regard, the vision provides the basis for the formation of transformations, reforms and structural changes to reach the desired point and eliminate the shortcomings. In fact, the final goal of the vision is to explain the strategic choices and the main directions in the structural-institutional developments, in order to create the necessary infrastructure for a desirable society. Among the countries of the world, the economy of the United States of America is at its disposal, and the gross domestic product of this country is close to 14.586 trillion dollars. In comparison, the 15 countries that have the euro currency in the European Union achieved a total GDP of 14.45 trillion dollars in 2007. China has the second largest economy in the world and if China's current economic growth continues, China will economically reach America, which is the world's largest economy, and must prepare itself to deal with the political and economic consequences of this issue. In 2011, the International Monetary Fund predicted that China will become the world's largest economy in the next five years, and in 2016, China will overtake America in terms of economic indicators. This fund has made its evaluations based on different priorities such as purchasing power. (William, 1383)

During the last three decades, world trade has grown at an unprecedented speed. In 1970, the total amount of international import and export amounted to 26% of the world's gross product. In 1980, this index increased to 40% and in 2000 to 50%, but the growth of foreign direct investment has been even more impressive. During the 60s, the growth rate of foreign direct investment was twice the growth rate of gross production and 1.4 times the growth rate of world exports.