Examining the needs and dimensions of future research in the organization of Hajj and pilgrimage

Faculty of Management-Department of Executive Management

Dissertation for Master Degree (M.A)

Strategy: "Strategic"

Dissertation abstract (including summary, objectives, implementation methods and results obtained):

In an era where constant change is one of its most important features, management based on past studies meets the needs of leaders and senior managers. It is not for strategic planning. Therefore, in order to be more successful in business, organizations try to pay attention to the future and use future research knowledge in the fields of planning and policy making. For this purpose, after reviewing the literature on the subject, research questions were formulated and to obtain answers, a researcher-made questionnaire was designed and used after verifying its validity and reliability. Since future research is considered at the macro level of organizations, the statistical population of this research including presidents, vice presidents, general managers and experts of the organization was considered to be 48 people and due to the limitedness of the statistical population of the research, the census method was used. The purpose of the research is practical and it was done with a descriptive-survey method. At first, demographic variables were analyzed using descriptive statistics tests, and then the non-normality of the data was determined through the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Then data analysis was done with the help of binomial non-parametric test and Friedman test to answer the questions. As a result, the needs considered by the respondents for the creation of future studies in the Hajj organization were identified and ranked. Also, according to the two macro-executive and cultural tasks of the organization, the aspects of future research that are significant in the macro-organization decisions were identified and prioritized in terms of importance.

Key words: future research, strategic management, change, macro-trend

Introduction

Contemporary world It is on the verge of great transformations. The sun of the third millennium of history, with its rising, melted the prescriptive models and formats and the contemporary man saw all his possessions and ideas blown away. The emergence of chaos theory, complex systems theory and open systems theory is only the starting point of this chaotic era. According to "Richard Slaughter", the formation of these conditions meant that the global-industrial world view of the West, which relied on certainty, predictability, guidance and instrumental rationalism, has collapsed. In this environment full of instability and full of uncertainty, the only approach and policy that has the possibility of success and validity is to try for the architecture of the future. Although this effort has always been associated with taking a lot of risk, accepting this risk is much wiser than watching the future developments. Drawing clear visions of the future, being aware of trends, developments, and as a result, making timely decisions, can make every society and organization more capable in finding the best ways. (Khazaei, 1390)

Achieving this ability requires mastering the strategic knowledge of future studies and its application in the field of practice and future competitions. Future studies is an interdisciplinary knowledge and the evolution of sciences and technologies has a direct and immediate effect on it. Futurism is knowledge that opens people's eyes to future events, opportunities, and possible risks and reduces corrosive uncertainties and doubts. It increases the ability of people and society to make intelligent choices and allows everyone to know where they can go (discovery future) and where they should go (normative futures) and which paths they can take to reach their desired futures more easily. (Malkifar et al., 2016, 6-7)

The goal of future research is managing trends, adapting to the conditions of survival and growth, and preparing for unforeseen events. In other words, the ideal of future research is to discover possible futures, choose the best and, if possible, its architecture. (Khazaei, 1390)

The remarkable point in the study of the future is that future research does not predict the future definitively, but the shaping factors are identified, studied and discussed.Then the upcoming challenges and issues are identified so that it is possible to plan by providing appropriate solutions to deal with them, and prevent the occurrence of challenges and the realization of an undesirable future. (Qadiri, 1384)

Now research in the field of the future, in an increasing way, has affected public decisions and policies, and many futurist organizations are trying to target the fields of planning and policy making and use futurist for the greater success of their business. (Khazaei, 1390)

Therefore, future research is more than ever the need of organizations and managers in the age of uncertainty.

Statement of the research problem

In an era where continuous change and uncertainty are its most important features and businesses deal with new and unknown issues every day Facing the future, managers are faced with the real problem of trying to guide their organizations in an uncertain and changing environment and agreeing on following a variety of practical and practical programs. (Aazdi Tehrani, 1389)

However, it must be acknowledged that the future is not fixed and stable, and definitive forecasts that are prepared only based on the study of the past and history, do not meet the needs of leaders and senior managers of governments, organizations, and companies for strategic planning. (Khazaei, 1390)

Failure to foresee events and trends can have unfortunate consequences. The industrial system left over from the past, the continuation of the trends in the classical structure of the economy, world trade and little development, the existence of some mechanistic views and the gradual destruction of the global environment are examples of problems and obstacles that challenge the future. In such an atmosphere full of problems and instability, the necessity of criticizing past behaviors, institutionalizing foresight, re-conceptualizing the hypothesis and thinking deeply about the future with more precision than the past is felt. In such an environment, studying the future is a necessary category. (Khazaei, 1390)

So moving towards future studies in organizations is not only a desire and choice; Rather, it is considered as a necessity and a skill that must be strengthened. Therefore, it is very important to know the key dimensions in future research thinking, so that through it, we can better imagine the future space, discover the trends, and based on that, shape the space of challenges and understand the nature of the obstacles so that we can provide the prerequisites for operations and the necessary capabilities. (Manzavi, 1388, 1) The implementation of this duty, on average, provides the services of two million Iranian pilgrims to visit the countries of Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria every year; In other words, it can be said that every Iranian family is somehow related to this organization. It is worth mentioning that the issue of Hajj and pilgrimage is faced with two categories. The first is the issue of Hajj rituals and pilgrimage customs, which undergo the least changes over time, and the second is the services provided to pilgrims for the proper performance of the rituals. These services are in various areas such as information, training, registration, dispatch, accommodation, health and treatment, nutrition, insurance, logistics and so on. It includes inside and outside the country, and its optimal presentation will not be achieved except with correct and effective communication with other relevant institutions and the private sector and using the most appropriate facilities. Therefore, it is necessary to make any policy, planning and decision-making with a detailed national and international review in all related areas so that the pilgrims waiting for the pilgrimage can be supported with maximum satisfaction and minimum cost. Therefore, the use of experts in the relevant fields, in order to carefully examine the surrounding environment and the future, will create a favorable future for pilgrims. Therefore, it seems that by creating a future research attitude in the decision-making managers of the Hajj organization, it prevented them from being surprised by the changes inside and outside the country.