An analysis of the distribution of population density at the urban level using AHP (Case example of Kermanshah city)

Dissertation for Master's degree (M.A)

Department of Geography and Urban Planning

Abstract

Increasing the population of cities and how to settle them is one of the problems of today's cities, and considering the need to preserve agricultural and natural lands as well as reduce urban costs, the issue of optimal distribution of population density is of particular importance. The main goal of this research is to analyze the distribution of population density at the urban level using the AHP model in Kermanshah. To achieve this purpose, a descriptive-analytical method has been used. Kermanshah city has 6 municipal districts and 2 districts were randomly selected from all the districts of Kermanshah. The indicators and criteria used in the research include indicators of alignment with people's tendencies, reduction of traffic, capacity of existing urban facilities, and improvement of physical quality, which have been analyzed using the AHP model in the GIS and Expert Choice software environment to analyze the distribution of population density in the neighborhoods of Kermanshah. The findings of the research show that according to experts' opinions, reducing traffic with a weight of 0.565 is the most important criterion and the capacity of existing urban facilities with a weight of 0.262, improvement of physical quality with a weight of 0.118 and alignment with people's tendencies with a weight of 0.055 are in the next ranks. In terms of the density situation, there is no difference between the existing and proposed density in 22 Bahman and Daulat Abad neighborhoods, and there is a need to increase the population in Hafazieh neighborhood, and in the rest of the neighborhoods, the existing density is higher than the proposed density. The result shows that the use of the AHP model was a good answer to the analysis of population density distribution in Kermanshah city and it showed that the population density in the neighborhoods of Kermanshah city does not have a favorable distribution.

Key words:

Population density, Analytical Hierarchy Method (AHP), GIS, Expert Choice, Kermanshah. Chapter 1

Overview of the research plan

- Introduction

The category of density is one of the old topics of urban planning. In fact, ever since man began to organize his settlements, he paid special attention to density, the determining role and impact of density on all aspects of city planning and design has turned it into an important indicator in expressing different viewpoints and schools in urban issues. At the same time, the influence of this element from temporal, spatial and systemic conditions has made its study very important to understand how society views space in different time periods and spatial conditions. So that different societies in the past had different approaches and attitudes towards them. But in the process of globalization, a convergence of views can be seen based on the increase in density in urban environments. This convergence is so wide that it has become one of the main topics of sustainable urban development. The density of the population is reflected in the urban landscape and the daily environment of the population and determines the conditions of their enjoyment of the urban space, especially the green space. Due to the need to preserve agricultural and natural lands as well as reducing urban costs, the issue of optimal distribution of population density is of particular importance. The optimal distribution of density causes the proper distribution of the population in the city and provides the possibility of optimal use of the existing conditions. In this chapter, an attempt is made to address the distribution of population density at the urban level, and this research, like other scientific researches, follows the quantitative framework of the scientific research method. Therefore, the research plan begins with the definition of the problem, its importance and necessity, and examines the hypothesis, questions, goals, and spatial scope of the research method, and finally ends with the statement of concepts, terms, problems, and limitations.

1-2- Problem Statement

Population Cities and how to settle them is one of the problems of today's cities. The role and importance of density in urban planning in general and in urban planning and design of new places in a specific sense is obvious. No urban plan and plan can be prepared and implemented without dealing with density as the main and determining factor as well as affecting all aspects of planning and design. Despite the great importance of this index, its place in the process of urban planning and design has been less investigated and analyzed from a scientific and theoretical point of view, and it is still a complex issue and a key issue.

Density at the city level, as a measure for the settlement of the population and urban facilities, is of particular importance in urban development plans (Ziyari, 2014: 70)..

The choice of density in urban plans has often been based on experiences and direct understanding, which ultimately leads to many problems and subsequent complications. Many policy makers of sustainable urban development, in favor of living with high density, have claimed that the compact city solution will help to reduce the tendency towards peripheral development and will help to promote sustainability and urban vitality (Azizi, 2008: 48). Due to the relatively long life of urban plans and the limited research conducted in the category of density, measurements as optimal density have never been realized to be used as a model; Therefore, to achieve optimal density, a more scientific approach is required. The discussion of optimal density has theoretical strength when, on the one hand, various factors affecting it are carefully identified and rooted, and on the other hand, the side effects of density in various social, economic and environmental dimensions are analyzed; Therefore, the use of methods that can help the proper distribution of density in cities can be very valuable. In this research, an appropriate model and method has been presented for the distribution of population density in the city of Kermanshah.

1-3- The importance and necessity of conducting research

The error in determining the population density for the whole city and the density of each of the different residential areas brings many bad results in the physical, service, visual, demographic, economic fields, as well as in the housing and traffic conditions of the city, so it cannot be easily ignored. For example, wouldn't it be wrong to determine a high density for a residential area that does not have the necessary conditions to accept such a density, in order to push billions of Rials of capital into housing construction activities in a wrong direction? And is it correct to formulate rules leading to low density in cities facing land shortage? In this way, a strong logic is needed to determine the amount of density and provide criteria for land subdivision and construction of residential buildings in different areas of a city (Salehi, 1367: 12).

The goals of all efforts in the issue of density in urban plans is to achieve optimal density, but an optimal density pattern that is acceptable in urban planning and design cannot have a solid scientific basis and has not been realized so far. The proposed densities of many plans are also faced with many problems and are regularly faced with views of changes in density. The main reason for these issues can be considered the lack of adequate scientific studies in the process of determining the density.

The purpose of compiling the urban density is to plan the spatial organization of the city and this plan will be a function of the cultural, social, economic, political, natural and environmental factors of the region where the city is located; Therefore, urban density is quite effective in relation to these factors and will be effective as soon as it is realized.

Urbanism as a global phenomenon, today is in a phase of speeding up where it can be safely said that the world we live in is an urban world, which requires distance from the natural environment and the unwilling acceptance of imbalances that originate from the unbalanced relationship between humans and the urban space (Abdin Derkosh, 2011: 11).

The importance of the problem in the study area (Kermanshah city) is revealed when the population and density statistics of the city are considered. In 1376, the net density of the city was 117.1 people per hectare and the gross density was 72.4 people per hectare, and in 1385, the city's net density was about 136.7 people per hectare and its gross density was 86.2 people per hectare. The urban population has also increased compared to 1376, and it is definitely not possible to ignore the distribution of population and density on the land surface in the spatial development of the land. A more balanced development of the population facilitates the spatial development of that land. Urban planning deals with population studies and forecasting its developments, which consider the population as a container and the city as a physical container of activity. Without the planned provision of the container, there will not be a suitable and sufficient container for accommodation, work and activity, recreation and commuting. Through multi-criteria decision-making methods, a suitable model for the distribution of population density at the city level can be reached. If such a model can be presented, it can be extended to many other cities or tested in them.