Applying the fuzzy inference system in the analysis of urban uses with a sustainable development approach, a case study of areas 22, 21, 20, 19, 18 of Tehran Municipality.

Dissertation for M.Sc degree

Department of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System - Water and Soil Resources

Abstract

Increasing population and indiscriminate development of cities, especially on their outskirts, regardless of environmental and human characteristics, has caused irreparable damage to the environment and its residents. For this reason, the issues of sustainable development in cities, especially megacities, have always been one of the issues that have attracted the attention of urban planners. But in most of the studies conducted in this field, only the theoretical concepts of the sustainability of land uses have been examined. Therefore, in this research, the fuzzy inference system was used to quantify the indicators of sustainable development. The fuzzy inference system is a knowledge-based system based on expert opinions, and it makes fuzzy criteria with definite values ??and analyzes based on if-then rules, and finally the output of the analysis is shown as real values. 

In this research, 13 criteria effective in measuring the sustainability of land uses have been selected with expert opinion, and after preparation and integration in GIS, they have finally been entered into the fuzzy inference system as three criteria of land use compatibility, security against earthquakes, and access to services. After the implementation of the designed system, a user stability map was prepared and in order to measure the effect of each of the input criteria on the stability of the uses, a sensitivity analysis was carried out. The results of the system show that the stability of the existing uses in the studied areas is mostly in the average range - around 0.4 to 0.6 - and in general, region 22 has a better condition than the rest of the regions, and the instability in the uses of region 20 is more than the other regions. is  It was also determined by carrying out sensitivity analysis that, among the criteria for measuring stability, the criterion of security against earthquakes is more important. In such a way that without considering this criterion, the stability of regions 18 to 21 has increased significantly and the stability of region 22 has also decreased. Keywords: fuzzy logic, fuzzy inference system, sustainable development, urban use. Introduction

The ambiguity and uncertainty inherent in the human sciences and especially in planning and decision-making requires methods that allow the mathematical investigation of the imprecise concepts of these sciences. Fuzzy sets as a mathematical theory for modeling human processes in which there is inaccuracy are considered to be a very efficient and useful tool (Chen and others, 2001) and provide the basis for reasoning, inference, control and decision-making in conditions of uncertainty. Vared (Jafari et al., 2018).

One of the important issues in the sustainable development of Tehran city is to pay attention to urban uses and how to distribute them spatially, in order to optimally use the urban space, optimal management and realization of sustainability indicators. Considering that the criteria used in the analysis of the sustainability of urban uses are numerous and on the other hand, the valuation of these criteria is often qualitative and based on linguistic variables[1] and has uncertainty, therefore, it is very appropriate to use the fuzzy inference system in the analysis of urban uses based on sustainable development indicators. The migration of people from outside areas, mainly from rural to urban areas, as well as the continuous conversion of agricultural land use to urban areas, is evident. In recent decades, economic growth in cities has caused the continuous attraction of new residents to cities, so that in the next 25 years, about 2 billion new people will be added to the cities of developing countries, and industrial development in large urban areas also causes excessive use of resources. In developing countries, large cities expand at a higher growth rate than cities located in other parts of the world (Pradhan and Perera 2005).

Although the density in some cities in developing countries is higher than the urban density in developed countries, in developing countries, cities are less stable than their developed counterparts (Richardson, 2000). In fact, the root of the sustainable development attitude goes back to dissatisfaction with the results of socio-economic development and growth in cities.. In all the definitions related to sustainability, the topic of improving the quality of life is considered while taking into account the tolerance of the environment and responding to the needs of the current generation without creating restrictions for the facilities of the future generation in order to meet their needs (Sarafi, 2015). In addition, it can be stated that the idea of ??sustainability is a concept that takes into account four environmental, social, economic and physical components (Bahreini, 2010). In knowledge-based methods, the application and integration of input data is determined by experts and specialists, and these models are more general than the data-based model. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is a knowledge-based system that converts them into mathematical relationships by using a set of rules and using linguistic variables (such as good, average, poor, etc.) as input and is able to draw correct conclusions from these data. The whole system of fuzzy inference is based on "if, then" rules that establish various relationships between input and output variables. In this research, effective measures in the sustainability of land uses, such as security against earthquakes, compatibility of land uses, and access to services, are entered into the FIS system in the form of fuzzy functions as input variables, and by using the rules in the knowledge base, suitable outputs, which are actually the degree of suitability of each region to the ideal situation in terms of sustainable development, will be obtained. Also, the sensitivity of the output maps to the input criteria is also analyzed. 1-3- Necessity of research In recent decades, the increase in population and the growth of industries have created various issues and problems in the cities and affected various aspects of human life. These new developments of urbanization and unbridled growth of cities have caused many problems such as the destruction of the environment, the reduction of green spaces, the reduction of residential, educational, medical and incompatibility of uses and the lack of proper access. Their residents have created services for the city dwellers. With the rapid growth of the world's population and its concentration in cities, the concept of sustainable urban development was raised as a fundamental component affecting the long-term vision of human societies. In fact, the emergence of sustainable development as one of the main strategies of the 21st century is also due to the effects of cities on the extent of the biosphere and various dimensions of human life, and there is no doubt that the discussion of sustainable development will be meaningless without considering cities.

The city of Tehran, as the capital of the country, has gone through its stages of growth and development much faster than the natural rate, as despite the rapid population growth, the area and size of this city have also enjoyed rapid growth in recent decades. (Qarkhlo, 2008). Based on the criteria of the United Nations, Tehran is considered to be the only metropolis in the country, with a share of 25% in the gross domestic product. According to the census of 2015, this urban complex has a population of 7.8 million people, who have a significant share of the country's scientific, specialized, industrial, and movement power, and it is expected that necessary plans will be made to meet their economic, social, cultural, and biological needs. Therefore, creating a foundation for the realization of the growth of cities and ultimately, the growth of the country is essential.

In the city of Tehran, due to the lack of attention to the law and in some cases the lack of law, the lack of influence of the municipality in the definition of the area, the lack of attention to the use of land on the outskirts of the city, the improper disposal of urban sewage, high immigration and the heterogeneity of residents in different urban areas, the inefficiency of public transportation and the unbalanced distribution of urban services, consequences such as the lack of proper implementation of programs and the definition of uses. According to the approved plans, disturbance in urban order, creation of heterogeneous structures especially in the outskirts of the city, environmental problems and citizens' dissatisfaction follow (Majabi et al., 2013).

Given that every year a large population migrates from other cities of Iran to the city of Tehran and especially the peripheral areas, these areas face problems such as the expansion of urban growth, lack of land, lower quality of life, lack of proper access to urban services, numerous pollutions and environmental destruction. It has reduced the stability of these areas. Therefore, it is necessary to plan and take necessary measures to increase the stability of these areas.