Presenting a model to increase the accuracy of estimating the approximate rate of insurance risk

Dissertation for receiving Master of Business Administration with financial orientation

(M.A)

Abstract

Since its introduction, the RBI method has found its place at the level of international oil, gas and petrochemical companies, and many studies have been conducted in this regard. And the results of this research have not been implemented in a systematic way, and these results have not been used to determine the insurance rate so far.

The important outputs of all the studies conducted in this research, apart from the type of methods used by RBI, are as follows.

In most industrial units, more than 80% of the risk of the entire unit is related to only 20% of the unit's equipment and parts.

The study has reduced the number of annual overhauls and postponed them from 2013 to 2015, and as a result, the costs of halting production to carry out overhauls, inspection costs and manpower costs have been reduced. Risk-based inspection is a method to detect the time of repairs and the inspection of each equipment separately in two categories: a) during the normal production of the unit and b) during the major repairs of the unit.

Introduction

After 78 years of the history of the insurance industry in our country, insurance has still not reached its main position in the economy and in most cases it remains at the level of compulsory insurance, which can be clearly seen even among the educated and wealthy sections of the society.

In addition to the insurance related to people, the insurance related to the main industries has not been fully defined and identified in the market of our country, and perhaps there are many big risks that due to the use of very old and traditional methods and the lack of sufficient and correct information, the field of insuring them in economic activities has not been provided.

In this research, an effort has been made to provide accurate and correct identification of insurable risk in the oil and gas and petrochemical industries by using the RBI method in order to determine insurance premiums more accurately. Statement of the problem

By carrying out an inspection in the industry, it is possible to determine in advance the points of conditions that can lead to the occurrence of irreparable accidents in terms of damage to people, equipment and the environment. Also, by performing a technical inspection, the destruction mechanisms can be identified, monitored and measured, and the time when the defect (failure) turns into a critical point can be determined.

Undoubtedly, today, increasing attention has been paid to the category of risk and risk-based methods to develop inspection, maintenance and management strategies in oil, gas, petrochemical process industries and power plant industries all over the world, including Iran. Risk-based inspection technology [1] gives industry owners the ability to consider a range of key factors, such as the level of reliability of equipment, as well as safety, health and environment [2] and financial issues in their decision-making processes. The use of risk-based inspection provides a tool for continuous improvement of equipment inspection programs and will lead to their systematic reduction. It is also possible to use the results of the risk-based inspection as a tool for the annual planning of organizations. In such a way that it is possible to determine the resources and budget necessary for the performance of the equipment at acceptable levels of risk and efficiency.

Risk-based inspection is a management tool for identifying and prioritizing risks related to systems under pressure and providing an inspection plan based on calculated risks. In fact, the use of risk analysis is to manage industrial equipment inspection programs.

In short, in the RBI technique, the probability and consequence of failure of pressure equipment is first calculated and the risk is obtained from the product of these two factors (i.e. probability and consequence). Then, based on the size of the obtained risk, the equipment is prioritized and the inspection program is defined for them.. In this technique, unlike traditional inspection programs that are either based on the opinion of the manufacturer or standard (Fixed Interval) or according to the conditions that the equipment has gone through (Condition Base), but taking into account the probability of failure that generally looks back and the history of the equipment in the past (Reactive), a fixed time interval is not defined for equipment inspection, but each device has a separate time interval and program for inspection.

Applying the general principles of risk analysis In order to prioritize and manage inspection programs, which is referred to as RBI today, it is one of the most recent applications of risk principles, which examines the probability and severity of the consequences of failure of the relevant equipment with a preventive view [1].

In this method, unlike traditional inspection methods, a fixed time interval is not defined, but a specific time interval and inspection method are determined for each device. By using risk-based inspection, while avoiding repeated inspections, inspection facilities and capabilities can be focused on devices with higher risk.

In short, the advantages of using the RBI method are: increasing the safety and reliability of equipment, reducing unplanned stops of the unit, reducing technical inspection costs and the risk of failure, accurate planning of technical inspection and repairs, increasing the distance between technical inspections and periodic repairs, as well as increasing teamwork and using different points of view.

The application of risk-based inspection in the inspection of refinery and petrochemical equipment was started by several companies in the late 1980s and was published in written form for the first time in 2013. The cornerstone of a joint industrial project with the support of 21 refining and petrochemical companies was established in 1993 under the supervision of the American Petroleum Institute[2] in order to develop risk-based inspection guidelines for use in the petroleum industry.

1-2. Research Background

Syed Javad Hashemi and colleagues (2009) achieved a coherent system of equipment integrity management using software through the method of establishing risk-based inspection in the atmospheric distillation unit of Abadan refinery. The output of this study was to achieve an integrated management system for equipment based on the risk-based inspection strategy and its benefits in terms of economic savings, safety issues, and centralization of inspection programs. [1]

Mr. Jian Shuai et al. (2011) studied the RBI of large crude oil storage tanks and found that the dominant results of the periodic internal inspection method are below the inspection level or above the inspection level. Therefore, how to rationally determine (acceptable) internal inspection distance, in order to balance the needs of safe operation and inspection cost for crude oil tanks, has been very significant. In this study, risk-based inspection technology (RBI) was used to quantitatively assess the risk of crude oil tanks and oil storage in China. Comparing the risk between the tank wall and its bottom shows that the tank's risk depends on its bottom. In this study, the instructions for predicting the internal inspection distance [1] for crude oil tanks are also available. The internal inspection interval predicted by the RBI method has gradually expanded with the increase of the acceptable level of risk, and finally this method was proposed to determine the acceptable risk of crude oil tanks, and the number 3.45 x 10-4 was determined as the acceptable risk of the oil tank. The number 0.8 was suggested as a safety factor for the final determination of the internal inspection interval for 18 crude oil tanks.

The internal inspection interval in China is a requirement of 5 to 7 years, which is very conservative and lower than the predicted service time of the tank. The internal inspection interval calculated by the Gumbel method is shorter than the RBI calculated method for tanks with a shorter internal inspection interval, this paper recommends a risk-based inspection method to predict Internal inspection distance should be used for crude oil tanks. [2]

Ting Jun Yang (2010) studied risk-based inspection on light polyethylene unit equipment and concluded that about 8% of pressurized equipment and lines contain 90% of the risk of polyethylene pressurized equipment. In this study, the basis for creating an inspection strategy after identifying high-risk equipment was provided. The method used in this study is qualitative RBI and it uses 5x5 matrix.