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  3. Analysis and study of the effect of monetary policies and exchange rate shocks on trade balance in Iran

Analysis and study of the effect of monetary policies and exchange rate shocks on trade balance in Iran

Number of pages: 158 File Format: word File Code: 30131
Year: 2014 University Degree: Master's degree Category: Economics
Tags/Keywords: Exchange rate - Monetary policy - trade balance - VECM - Vector error correction model
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  • Summary of Analysis and study of the effect of monetary policies and exchange rate shocks on trade balance in Iran

    Sources

    A) Persian sources:

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    2- Abrishmi, Hamid; Mehrara, Mohsen (2004), methods of regulating and balancing the foreign exchange market and encouraging the purchase of goods and services from within. Tehran. Business Studies and Research Institute.

    3- Abrishmi, Hamid. (1381). Applied econometrics (new approaches). Tehran: Tehran University Press. First edition

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    6- Bahmani Eskoui, Mohsen (1372). The macroeconomic effects of the devaluation of the Rial in the post-revolution period, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, pp. 87-120.

    7- The Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Economic Report and Balance Sheet of Central Bank Vol. A. A. Different years

    8- Taqvi, Mehdi and Kahram Azad Mehr (1384). Investigating the relationship between the current account deficit and the exchange rate in Iran's economy, Economic Research Journal, No. 18

    9- Tagvi, Mehdi and Ali Asghar Lotfi (1385), "Investigating the effects of monetary policy on the volume of deposits, granted facilities and liquidity of the country's banking system (1374-1382)", Business Research. 20, 166-131.

    10- Gerald M., Dudley Sears (1368), pioneers of development, translated by: Seyed Ali Asghar Hedayati and Ali Yasri, Samt Publications.

    11- Dadgar, Yadullah and Naji Mirani, Ali Akbar (1382), "Indices of Globalization of the Economy - Iran's Situation", Commercial Research Quarterly, No. 29.

    12- Rahimi Boroujerdi, Alireza (1386), economic liberalization from theory to practice, Tehran, Samt Publications.

    13- Rahimi Boroujerdi, Alireza (1385), "A theoretical study on the degree of trade openness in developing countries", faculty member of the Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Economic Research Journal.

    14- Rahimi Boroujerdi, Alireza (1379), Economics International, Tehran, Baisarat Farhani publishing house.

    15- Rahimi Boroujerdi, Alireza (1376), Depreciation of currency and balance of foreign payments of Iran. Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance. Tehran. First edition.

    16- Zanganeh, Mohammad (2008), analysis of the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance using an approach in Iran's economy, master's thesis, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran.

    17- Zadmehr, Elahe (2008), investigating the effect of devaluation of currency on Iran's foreign trade balance through the J curve, master's thesis, University of Isfahan.

    18- Selimifar, Mustafa (2009), development economics, Mohahed Publications, Tehran. 19- Shiva, Reza (2008), "Effect of financing in the long term on the economic growth and development of Iran", Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development. 20- Sharifi Renani, H., Kamijani, A. and Shahrashtani, H. (1389), "Investigation of monetary transmission mechanism in Iran: structural vector autoregression approach", Quarterly Money and Economy. 2, 176-145.

    21- Shahrashtani, Hamid and Hossein Sharifi Renani (2007), "Estimating the money demand function and investigating its stability in Iran", Journal of Economic Research. 83, 114-89.

    22- Sadeghi, H., Rostamzadeh, P. and Asgharpour, h. (2016) "Disaggregation of monetary policies using the MCI monetary conditions index in Iran", Fasnameh Ekhmani, No. 63, 59-82.

    23- Taheri Fard, A. and Mousavi Azad Kasmai, A. (1387), "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Variables in Iran", Journal of Economic Research, No. 83, Summer 87, 137-16.

    24- Asgari, Mansour (1379), Determining the dynamic and cause-and-effect relationship between the balance sheet and the current account deficit using the convergence method in Iran, Journal of Business, No. 17.

    25- Farjadi, Gholamali (1379), An Introduction to Economic Growth and Development Theories, Alborz Publications, Tehran.

    26- Karimi Hasnijeh, Hossein (1382), "Globalization, Economic Integration and the Most Appropriate Trade-Regional Arrangements for Iran's Economy (Opportunities and Challenges)", Doctoral Thesis, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Isfahan University, Isfahan.

    27- Kolbasi, Hassan and Seyyed Abdulhamid Jalai (1381), "Reviewing the Effects Globalization on Iran's Foreign Trade", Iranian Economic Research Quarterly, No. 11.

    28- Gujarati, Damour (1995), Fundamentals of Econometrics, translated by Hamid Abrishmi (2013), University Press.               

    29- Nofarsti, Mohammad (1384), "Investigating the effect of monetary and foreign exchange policies on Iran's economy in the framework of a dynamic macroeconomic model", Journal of Economic Research. 70, 1-29.

    30- Memarian, Erfan and Seyed Ahmedreza Jalali Nayini (2008), "Short-term and long-term effects of currency shocks on the trade balance (testing the J-curve phenomenon based on a VECM model), economic research paper.

    31- Najjarzadeh, Reza, Aqli, Lotfali and Vahid Shaghaghi Shahri (2008), the effect of the exchange rate and real exchange rate on the foreign trade deficit Iran, Economic Research Quarterly, 9th Year, Number 2

    32- Nili, Masoud (2009), An Approach to Development, Arman Newspaper.

    33- Nofarsti, Mohammad (2017), The Root of Unity and Collectiveness in Econometrics, Tehran, Rasa Publications.

    B) Latin sources:

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    Banbura M, Giannone, D and Reichlin L. 2010. Large Bayesian vector. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25, 71–92.

    Bernanke, B, Boivin J and Eliasz P. 2005. Measuring monetary policy: a factor augmented autoregressive (FAVAR) approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120, 387–422.

    Bj?rnland, H C and Leitemo, K. 2009. Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market. Journal of monetary economics, 56, 275–282.

    Busch U, Scharnagl M and Scheithauer J. 2010. Loan supply in Germany during the financial crisis, Discussion paper series 1: Economic studies No 05/2010.

    Canova, F and G. de Nicol?. 2002. Monetary Disturbances Matter for Business Fluctuations in the G-7. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 1131–1159.

    Canova, F. and G. de Nicol?. 2003. On the Sources of Business Cycles in the G-7. Journal of International Economics 59, 77–100.

    Canova, F and Pina, J. 1999. Monetary Policy Misspecification in VAR Models. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2333.

    Dedola, L and Neri, S. 2007. What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign-restrictions. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54, 512–549.

    Di Giorgio G. and Nistico´, S. 2007. Monetary policy and stock prices in an open economy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39, 1947–1985. 34

     

    Irvendi, M and Guloglu, B. 2010. Monetary shocks, exchange rates and trade balances; Evidence from inflation targeting countries. Economic Modeling??

    Kim, S. 2001. Effects of monetary policy shocks on the trade balance in small open economy” Economic letters, 71, 197–203.

    Kim, S. 2001. International transmission of U.S monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR`s economy. Journal of monetary economics, 48, 339–372.

    Kraay, A and Ventura, J. 2005. The Dot-Com Bubble the Bush Deficits, and the U.S. Current Account. NBER Working Paper No. 11543.

    Krugman, P R and Obstfeld, M. 2003. International economic theory and policy. Sixth edition, Addison Wesley.

    Koray, F and McMillin, W.D. 1999. Monetary shocks, the exchange rate and the trade balance. Journal of international money and finance, 18 (6), 925–940.

    Lee, J and Chinn, M D. 1998. Current account and the real exchange rate. A structural analysis of major currencies. NBER Working Paper No.6495.Cambridge.MA.

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    Fratzscher, M and Straub, R. 2009. Asset prices and current account fluctuations in G7 economies. European central bank working paper series, No 1014/ 02 2009.

    Fratzscher, M, Juvenal, L and Sarno, L. 2010. Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account. European economic review, 54, 643–658. 35

     

    Fry, RA and Pagan, AR. 2007. Some issues in using sign restrictions for identifying structural VARs.

  • Contents & References of Analysis and study of the effect of monetary policies and exchange rate shocks on trade balance in Iran

    List:

    Table of Contents

    Title

    Abstract..1

    Chapter One: Research Overview

    1-1 Introduction..3

    1-2 Statement of the problem..4

    1-3 Importance and necessity of doing it.

    1-4 Research Objectives..5

    1-5 research hypotheses..5

    1-6 research method..6

    1-7 data collection method.6

    1-8 definition of important terms and concepts.6

    1-8-1 definition of exchange rate..6

    1-8-2 definition of trade balance.7

    1-9 research organization.7

    Chapter Two: Theoretical Foundations and Research Background

    1-2 Introduction..9

    2-2 Instability and Fluctuation..9

    2-3 Exchange Rate and Exchange Market. 10

    2-4 Exchange Market and Exchange Systems. 11

    2-4-2 Exchange Market and Fixed Exchange System. 12

    2-5 Types of Currency Rates..13

    2-5-1 nominal exchange rate..13

    2-5-2 real exchange rate and calculation of its index. 14

    2-5-3 effective exchange rate..15

    2-5-4 overview of definitions of real exchange rate. tools.18

    2-6-1 views related to monetary policies. 20

    2-6-1-1 Quantitative theory of money. 20

    2-7 Monetary transmission mechanism. 22

    2-8 Monetary transmission channels. 23

    2-8-1 Direct interest rate channel. 24

    2-8-2 Asset price channel (stocks). Currency..25

    2-8-4 bank credits channel (bank lending channel).26

    2-8-5 Investigating the effect of monetary shocks on the exchange rate.27

    2-9 Monetary attitude to the balance of international payments.28

    2-10 Monetary policy tools.32

    2-11 Theoretical foundations of the bank lending channel, policy transfer Monetary.35

    2-12 The effect of devaluation of currency on foreign trade.36

    2-13- Business cycles.38

    2-13-1 Monetary regimes and business cycle.39

    2-14 Monetary and credit policies and business cycles.40

    2-14-1 Theory of real business cycles (RBC) and classical monetary models.41

    2-14-1-1 The efficiency of business cycles.41

    2-14-1-2 The importance of technological shocks as a source of economic fluctuations.42

    2-14-1-3 The limited role of monetary factors.42

    2-14-2 New Keynesian model (Neo-Keynesian): the most important elements and features.43

    2-14-2-1 Exclusive competition.44

    2-14-2-2 Absence of short-term neutrality of monetary policy.44

    2-15 Three currency periods in the country.47

    2-16 Iran's negative trade balance.48

    2-17 The relationship between exchange rate and trade balance in Iran.49

    2-18 Studies conducted abroad 50

    2-19 studies conducted inside the country. 57

    2-20 conclusions..62

    Chapter 3: research method

    3-1 introduction..65

    3-2 some features of economic time series.65

    3-3 concept of stationarity and stationarity tests.66

    3-3-1 concept of static time series. 66

    3-3-2 unit root test. 67

    3-3-2-1 Dickey-Fuller and generalized Dickey-Fuller test. 68

    3-3-2-2 Phillips Perron test. 71

    3-4 collective methods. 73

    3-4-1 concept of collective economy. 74

    3-4-2 definition of collective based on theoretical foundations. 75

    3-4-3 collective tests.        75

    3-4-3-1 two-stage Engel Granger test. 75

    3-4-3-2 Durbin-Watson test of cointegration regression. 76

    3-4-3-3 test of cointegration pattern by Johansen-Jucelsius method. 77

    3-4-3-4 test of determining the number of convergence vectors. 78

    3-5 pattern Vector self-explanation (VAR) Toda-Yamamuter causality test. .87

    3-7 Error Correction Model (ECM). 87

    3-8 advantages of using the VAR method. Model. 94

    4-4 co-accumulation test. 97

    4-5 Estimation results of error correction model. 100

    4-6 Examining the short-term relationship of variables in the vector error correction model. 102

    4-7102

    4-7 Estimation and dynamic analysis of the model. 104

    4-8 Variance analysis (FEVDs). 105

    4-9 hypothesis test.107

    4-10 conclusion.107

    Chapter five: conclusion and suggestions

    5-1 conclusion.110

    5-2 suggestions.111

    List of sources

    Persian sources.

    Resources Latin.z

    source:

    none.

Analysis and study of the effect of monetary policies and exchange rate shocks on trade balance in Iran
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