Master's course in demography, examining and comparing factors affecting birth spacing among women aged 15-49 in Iran (2015) and Afghanistan (2010)

Master's Thesis in Demography

Abstract

The main purpose of this research is to investigate and compare the socio-economic factors affecting birth spacing among women aged 15-49 who have at least one child in the two countries of Iran and Afghanistan. The method used in this research is a secondary analysis, the data of which is taken from the Afghanistan Mortality Survey [1] (AMS) which was conducted in 2010 by the Afghanistan Public Health Institute of the Ministry of Health and the Central Statistics Organization of this country and also through the history of births reconstructed from two percent of the raw data of the 1385 census which was reconstructed by Aini Zeinab at the Center for Population Studies and Research of Asia and the Pacific. Based on the findings of this research, in general, in the two countries, the spacing between births in the studied periods (1385 Iran and 2010 Afghanistan) has happened with differences: the effect of socio-economic variables on the spacing of births was greater in the lower ranks of births in Iran; But in Afghanistan, which has a natural fertility pattern and having a large family is of great importance, the effect of these variables has been higher in birth rates. The fertility rate for Iranian women is much lower compared to Afghan women in all transitions due to the presence of a controlled fertility pattern. And this ratio decreases noticeably in the transfer from the second child to the third child and higher transfers. The socio-economic variables examined in lower transitions showed their effect on the spacing variable among Iranian women. The effect of socio-economic variables for Afghan women has not been done at the same time. The place of residence and socio-economic status on the progress ratio of children was evident in the transition from the sixth child to above among Afghan women. But the variable effect of education was seen in the lower ranks of births and in the transition from the third child to the fourth child.  

Key words: birth spacing, explanatory variables, natural fertility, controlled fertility, transition from female birth to first child and. .

[1] . AFGHANISTAN MORTALITY SURVEY, 2010

Introduction

Spacing between births[1] is one of the important elements of fertility control[2] that couples decide to do under certain circumstances. One of the elements that is effective in reducing fertility is the spacing between the births of children. Increasing or decreasing this spacing affects the fertility rate of women and is directly related to the rate of subsequent births, the level of opportunities especially for mothers, the well-being of children and parents, the fertility rate of the entire society, and so on. Spacing between births by deliberately delaying pregnancy and delaying childbearing after marriage can be a rational strategy for fertility control (Chen et al, 1974: 279). Due to the fact that postponing childbearing and spacing between births has a direct effect on fertility reduction and is considered one of the characteristics of developed societies, recently in developing countries including Iran, a number of women postpone the birth of their second child for several years. took In this project, the author seeks to investigate and compare factors affecting birth spacing in the two countries of Iran and Afghanistan. Although the two countries are similar in many cultural, linguistic and religious fields, they have different fertility levels and patterns. Afghan fertility is an example of a natural fertility pattern where the prevalence and use of contraceptives are less common and couples have limited voluntary and conscious control over reproduction. However, Iran's fertility is a completely controlled fertility pattern, even below the replacement level, in which the prevalence of contraceptives is quite common and couples voluntarily and consciously limit reproduction.

In recent years, Iran has experienced a sharp decrease in the fertility level and has been facing an increase in the delay in having children, which has led to a drop in the fertility rate below the replacement level [4]. So that this rate has decreased from 3.6 children per woman in 2015 to 1.8 children in 2015. Meanwhile, the fertility rate among Afghan women in 1995 was about 8.Meanwhile, the fertility rate among Afghan women in 1995 was about 8.06 births per woman, which reached its peak during this year. And after that, with the decrease of the fertility rate to about 1/5 in 2010, it has started its downward trend. In other words, it can be said that Afghanistan is experiencing a transition in recent years.

One of the motivations for conducting this research is the lack of research conducted in the field of investigating and comparing birth spacing between Iran and Afghanistan. It is expected that the results of this research will lead to a new perspective on the importance of economic, social and demographic variables, and its effect on the spacing between births among women of two societies. 

1-1- Problem outline

Based on the research done so far, fertility has been proposed as the first determining factor of demographic changes and developments, which is the main reason for population growth. Fertility is a major issue in population analysis and is known as the main factor of change in the population structure, which, while affecting the economic, social and political conditions of a society, itself undergoes changes and transformations under the influence of economic, social, cultural and political factors and conditions.

Two types of dominant fertility patterns are: natural fertility pattern[5] and controlled fertility pattern[6]; Each of which is briefly stated below:

Natural fertility refers to populations in which women do not make any effort to limit the number of their children using birth control (Lucas and Mir, 1383:103). L. Henry coined the term natural fertility for a population that does not voluntarily control births. In these populations, real fertility is marital and mainly dependent on biological variables; Even social norms are involved in areas such as the duration of breastfeeding or the prohibition of sexual intercourse during breastfeeding (Vansh and Tremot, 1978). In other words, it can be said that natural fertility is subject to biological, social and cultural laws and regulations and does not involve any kind of voluntary and conscious control on the part of the couple. In such conditions, the birth rate is high and usually more than 40 per thousand, and the total fertility rate is between 6 and 8 children (Hosseini, 1383: 88).

Afghanistan is one of the countries that currently follows the natural fertility pattern and has had a slight decrease in fertility rates. During the period of 2006-2010, the birth rate has decreased from 48.63 to 40.34 per thousand, as well as the total fertility rate in this period from 2.6 to 1.5. From 1996 to 2001, the prevalence of contraceptives was banned by the Taliban government. According to the reproductive health strategy of 2003, the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) ranged from 2 to 12%, and CPR was 8% this year. In 2006, this rate reached 12%, and in 2010, the percentage of contraception reached 20%. While 90% of married women are aware of contraceptive methods, only 22% of them use these methods to create a break between births. The most common methods of prevention are oral pills and progesterone injections. Although birth spacing technology exists, it is not well known at the level of knowledge (for more information, refer to the results of Afghanistan's mortality survey[7] in 2010, Ministry of Health 2011). In other words, in conditions of controlled fertility, couples voluntarily and consciously decide on the number of children and control and limit the size of the household. In such a situation, the raw rate of births is lower than normal conditions and less than 20 per thousand, and the total fertility rate also reaches figures between 2 to 3 and even less than 2 babies (ibid.: 89).

In the last few decades, under the influence of birth control policies [8], birth in Iran has gone away from the natural state and moved towards controlled fertility. Iran lives in controlled fertility conditions with a crude birth rate of 18 per thousand and a total fertility rate of 1.8 children per woman in 2015. In other words, there was a transition from natural fertility to controlled fertility, and at this time, the birth rate was at a low level. The birth rate in controlled fertility is reduced to less than half compared to natural fertility. (Mirzaei, 1384: 43).

In recent years, Iran has experienced a sharp decrease in the fertility level and has faced an increase in the delay in having children, which has led to a drop in the fertility rate below the replacement level.