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  3. Analyzing the trend of diurnal temperature range (DTR) in Iran

Analyzing the trend of diurnal temperature range (DTR) in Iran

Number of pages: 173 File Format: word File Code: 29706
Year: Not Specified University Degree: Master's degree Category: Geography - Urban Planning
Tags/Keywords: Circadian temperature range - climatology - Environmental - Environmental planning - Geography - Natural geography - Network data
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  • Summary of Analyzing the trend of diurnal temperature range (DTR) in Iran

    Master's Thesis in Natural Geography

    Climatology and Environmental Planning

    Abstract

    Human civilization is based on the stability of climatic conditions, therefore climate change can be considered a threat to human civilization. In recent years, climate scientists have tried to trace these changes for some climatic elements, the most important of which is temperature. The distance between minimum and maximum temperature under the name of daily temperature range DTR can also be considered as one of the ways to reveal climate changes. Therefore, in this research, the country's DTR trend was tested in order to show the spatial and temporal rhythms of these changes. To achieve this goal, a database containing the minimum and maximum data of all meteorological stations in the country was collected monthly from the beginning of its establishment in the period from 1961 to 2008 from the data center of the Meteorological Organization of the country.  Then, with the help of the geostatistical capabilities of the Surfer software, a grid of 15-15 km cells was spread over the country and the temperature values ??were estimated at the nodes of this grid. In this way, each map containing 7196 cells covered the borders of the country. In total, 1152 = 12 x 48 x 2 maps were calculated for minimum and maximum temperature. The above network data array was converted into a DTR array in the MATLAB software environment and then a linear regression analysis was applied using the beta test method on each individual cell. The results showed that there is a decreasing trend of DTR in all months of the year, but it does not follow a specific geographical pattern. Increasing trends can be seen as small spots, the most extensive of which is observed in the area between Bandar Abbas to Bam, as well as east of Kerman, north of Yazd, south of Isfahan, south of Qom, east of Qazvin, south of Ardabil and north of Khorramabad. The largest range of negative trend is related to July with 56% and August with 48% and the largest range of positive trend is in April with 9% and May with 4.8%. The decreasing trend of DTR is significant in all months of the year except April and March. Investigations showed that during the last 50 years, the annual DTR of the country has decreased by 1.66 degrees Celsius and reached 15.325 degrees in 1961 to 13.659 degrees in 2010. Meanwhile, the contribution of the minimum temperature increase in the reduction of DTR is much higher than the maximum temperature.

    Key words: daily temperature range, linear regression trend test, network data, Iran

    First

    Generalities of the research

    1-1 Introduction:

    Climate is one of the most important and limiting factors in agricultural production. In recent decades, there have been changes in the general climate of the world, which have caused many changes. Climate change is not predictable. Climate changes and temperature increase cause changes in the hydrological cycle (Lettermeyer 1994)[1].

    Scientists have been able to prove the important role of humans in climate changes through the many models they have presented. For example, today, industrial growth, destruction of forests, increase in the amount of carbon dioxide, methane and aerosol CFCs and fine particles in the atmosphere have caused changes in the Earth's climate. Diurnal temperature difference [3] is one of the most effective parameters in climate change. This parameter is obtained from the difference between maximum (day) and minimum (night) temperature.

    DTR is a suitable parameter to obtain the mutual effect of long-wavelength and short-wavelength solar radiation. (Makoski 2008) [4]

    The goals of this research are to evaluate the trend of the day and night range of the country and also to identify areas that have an increasing or decreasing trend or no trend. Comparing the results of parametric and non-parametric methods in evaluating the trend of the daily temperature range is another goal of this research. The minimum temperature increase rate is higher than the maximum temperature increase rate because the minimum temperature is affected by greenhouse gases. Factors such as the effects of urbanization, industrial activities, the way of consuming and releasing greenhouse gases, climate change phenomena cause an increase in the minimum temperature.

    This research has been compiled in five chapters, each of which is related to the other seasons.

    In the first chapter of this thesis, like other researches, the general description (introduction-geographical location-problem statement-main research questions-research hypotheses-research objectives-aspects) research innovation etc.) have been discussed.

    Chapter 3: How to collect and compile the earth surface temperature data that was obtained through the weather stations of Iran, also the interpretation and development of various common statistical methods in identifying the trend of day and night temperature in the world was discussed. After that, the methods used in this research to analyze the trend of the daily temperature range in Iran have been explained.

    Chapter 4: Among the other chapters of the research, which is more valuable, the trend of the range of daily temperature changes in Iran during the years 1961-2008 has been investigated with the parametric linear regression and non-parametric Mann-Kendall methods.

    The present research is the first research that has investigated the range of day and night temperature changes in Iran using a regional method. Especially in connection with various human activities on the surface of the earth, which has mainly led to an increase in the amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, one of the main consequences of which is the increase in the average temperature of the earth. In this connection, if we want to address this issue from a regional perspective, very interesting results will be obtained.

    Climate is attributed to the weather conditions of a geographical area such as temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, precipitation and other meteorological characteristics in a relatively long period of time. The knowledge of studying climate and average weather characteristics in a specific period is called climatology. If a specific region or for the entire global climate occurs, it is called climate change. Many internal changes in climate systems occur with a delay. Because the Earth's climate system is very large and moves slowly and responds to inputs with a delay. Climate changes as a result of temperature increase or global warming, together with the rise of sea water will be a serious threat to the countries of the world.

    Since climate is considered one of the most important components of the ecosystem, its changes, however small, can affect different components of the ecosystem to different degrees. For this reason, examining the changes of different climate parameters, their causes and impact on ecosystems and human life is one of the things that has a special place in agriculture, natural resources and land unit management, whether it is an ecosystem, farm or watershed. Climate change indicates abnormal changes in the climate in the earth's atmosphere and its consequences in different parts of the globe. One of the manifestations and consequences of this phenomenon is temperature changes in different regions. Temperature is a thermodynamic and important atmospheric variable whose change is the origin of many physical, chemical and environmental changes and its measurement in the atmosphere has a longer history compared to other atmospheric elements. Iran is one of the most unique countries in terms of climate. The difference in air temperature in winter between the hottest and the coldest point sometimes reaches more than 50 degrees Celsius. The difference in air temperature in Iran is big in different places. While the temperature of Shahrekord reaches -30 degrees at night in the winter season, the people of Ahvaz experience summer weather (50 degrees). The weather of the northern coast is hot and humid in summer and mild in winter. North-western and western areas have mild summers and cold winters, and southern areas have extremely hot summers and mild winters. Since 1880, the measurement of the air temperature of the earth has started and it continues until now. By 2014, the Earth is predicted to witness an unprecedented "warming" record. It is also said that global warming will cause severe drought, scorching heat and terrible storms in 2100. Regarding the reasons for this phenomenon, a series of theories are based on the effect of greenhouse gases on this process, and some other processes such as volcanic and geothermal activities, as well as solar activities, are considered the reason for this phenomenon. The citation of these scientists for their statements is the occurrence of hot and cold periods during the period of time that passes through the life of the earth.

  • Contents & References of Analyzing the trend of diurnal temperature range (DTR) in Iran

    List:

    Abstract.. Chapter 1: General Research

    1-1 Introduction 2

    1-2 State the problem. 3

    1-3 research objectives. 6

    1-4 research assumptions. 6

    1-5 research questions. 6

    1-6 Geographical location of Iran. 6

    1-6-1 relative position. 6

    1-6-2 Geographical location. 8

    1-7 stages of research. 16

    1-7-1 research method. 16

    1-7-2 Method of measuring and gathering information (field, library, etc.) 16

    1-7-3 Information gathering tools. 16

    1-7-4 Information analysis method. 16

    1-8 Definitions of the main research terms. 17

    Chapter Two: Review of Research Literature "Research Background"

    2-1 Climate. 20

    2-2 Background of the research. 23

    2-2-1 The background of studying climate change abroad. 23

    2-2-2 The background of the investigation of climate changes inside the country. 33

    Chapter Three: Data and Methods

    3-1 Statistical characteristics of data. 49

    3-2 diagrams. 51

    3-3 Analysis and forecasting of climatic elements trends. 53

    3-4 Non-parametric tests of inferential statistics. 56

    3-4-1 Mann-Kendall test. 57

    3-4-2 Spearman correlation coefficient. 58

    3-5 parametric (factorial) tests of inferential statistics. 59

    3-5-1 Linear regression. 60

    3-6 stages of extracting the trend of the daily temperature range of Iran during the years 1961-2008. 61

    Chapter Four: Research Findings

    4-1 Data description 64

    4-2 Linear regression test. 67

    4-3 Mann Kendall Method: 93

    Chapter Five: Summary and Conclusion

    5-1 Conclusion. 107

    5-2 Evaluation of assumptions 108

    Resources. 109

    .

    Source:

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Analyzing the trend of diurnal temperature range (DTR) in Iran
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