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Providing a model in order to increase the accuracy of estimating the approximate rate of insurance risk

Number of pages: 142 File Format: word File Code: 29676
Year: 2013 University Degree: Master's degree Category: Management
Tags/Keywords: Inspection management - insurance - Insurance risk - Management - planning - Probability of failure - Program management - risk - Risk management
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  • Summary of Providing a model in order to increase the accuracy of estimating the approximate rate of insurance risk

    Dissertation for Master's degree

    (M.A)

    Financial Oriented Business Management

    Abstract

    Since its introduction, the RBI method has found its place at the level of international oil, gas and petrochemical companies, and many studies have been conducted in this regard.

    So far, few researches in the country have been conducted on risk-based assessment and management, and the results of these researches have been systematic. It has not been implemented and these results have not been used to determine the insurance rate so far.

    The important outputs of all the studies conducted in this research, apart from the type of methods used by RBI, are as follows.

    In most industrial units, more than 80% of the risk of the entire unit is related to only 20% of the unit's equipment and parts.

    The study has reduced the number of annual overhauls and postponed them from 2013 to 2015, and as a result, the costs of halting production to carry out overhauls, inspection costs and manpower costs have been reduced. The inspection is based on the risk of dealing with a method to detect the time of repairs and inspecting each equipment separately in two categories: a) during the normal production of the unit and b) during the basic repairs of the unit. Keywords: risk, approximate rate The clarity can be seen even among the educated and wealthy sections of the society.

    In addition to the insurances related to individuals, the insurances related to the main industries have not been fully defined and identified in the market of our country, and perhaps there are large and numerous risks that due to the use of very old and traditional methods and the lack of sufficient and correct information, the field of insuring them in economic activities has not been provided, and if it is provided, it is with very old standards that have a high risk for insurance companies and subsequently cause There are a lot of losses and losses for these companies.

    In this research, it has been tried to provide the accurate and correct identification of insurable risk in oil and gas and petrochemical industries by using the RBI method in order to determine the insurance premium more accurately.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Chapter First, generalities. Statement of the problem

    By carrying out an inspection in the industry, it is possible to determine in advance the points of conditions that can lead to the occurrence of irreparable accidents in terms of damage to people, equipment and the environment. Also, by performing a technical inspection, the destruction mechanisms can be identified, monitored and measured, and the time when the defect (failure) turns into a critical point can be determined.

    Undoubtedly, today, increasing attention has been paid to the category of risk and risk-based methods to develop inspection, maintenance and management strategies in oil, gas, petrochemical process industries and power plant industries all over the world, including Iran. Risk-based inspection technology [1] gives industry owners the ability to consider a range of key factors, such as the level of reliability of equipment, as well as safety, health and environment [2] and financial issues in their decision-making processes. The use of risk-based inspection provides a tool for continuous improvement of equipment inspection programs and will lead to their systematic reduction. It is also possible to use the results of the risk-based inspection as a tool for the annual planning of organizations. In such a way that it is possible to determine the resources and budget necessary for the performance of the equipment at acceptable levels of risk and efficiency.

    Risk-based inspection is a management tool for identifying and prioritizing risks related to systems under pressure and providing an inspection plan based on calculated risks. In fact, the use of risk analysis is to manage industrial equipment inspection programs.

    In short, in the RBI technique, the probability and consequence of equipment failure under pressure is calculated first, and the risk is obtained from the product of these two factors (that is, probability and consequence). Then, based on the size of the obtained risk, the equipment is prioritized and the inspection program is defined for them. In this technique, unlike traditional inspection programs that are either based on the opinion of the manufacturer or the standard (Fixed Interval) or based on the conditions that the equipment has gone through (Condition Base), but taking into account the probability of failure that in general looks back and the history of the equipment in the past (Reactive), a fixed time interval is not defined for inspecting the equipment, but each device has a separate time interval and schedule for inspection.

    Using the general principles of analysis in order to prioritize and manage risk programs Inspection, which today is referred to as RBI, is one of the most recent applications of risk principles, which examines the probability and severity of the consequences of failure of the relevant equipment with a preventive view[3].

    In this method, unlike traditional inspection methods, a fixed time interval is not defined, but a specific time interval and inspection method are determined for each device. By using risk-based inspection, while avoiding repeated inspections, inspection facilities and capabilities can be focused on devices with higher risk.

    In short, the advantages of using the RBI method are: increasing the safety and reliability of equipment, reducing unplanned stops of the unit, reducing technical inspection costs and the risk of failure, accurate planning of technical inspection and repairs, increasing the distance between technical inspections and periodic repairs, as well as increasing teamwork and using different points of view.

    The application of risk-based inspection in the inspection of refinery and petrochemical equipment was started by several companies in the late 1980s and was published in written form for the first time in 2013. The cornerstone of a joint industrial project with the support of 21 refining and petrochemical companies was established in 1993 under the supervision of the American Petroleum Institute[4] in order to develop risk-based inspection guidelines for use in the petroleum industry.

    1-2. Research Background

     

    Syed Javad Hashemi and colleagues (2009) achieved a coherent system of equipment integrity management using software through the method of establishing risk-based inspection in the atmospheric distillation unit of Abadan refinery. The output of this study was the achievement of an integrated equipment management system based on the risk-based inspection strategy and its benefits in terms of economic savings, safety issues, and centralization of inspection programs. [1]

    Mr. Jian Shuai et al. (2011) studied the RBI of large crude oil storage tanks and found that the dominant results of the periodic internal inspection method are below the inspection level or above the inspection level. Therefore, how to rationally determine (acceptable) internal inspection distance, in order to balance the needs of safe operation and inspection cost for crude oil tanks, has been very significant. In this study, risk-based inspection technology (RBI) was used to quantitatively assess the risk of crude oil tanks and oil storage in China. Comparing the risk between the tank wall and its bottom shows that the tank's risk depends on its bottom. In this study, the instructions for predicting the internal inspection interval [5] for crude oil tanks are also available. The internal inspection interval predicted by the RBI method has gradually expanded with the increase of the acceptable level of risk, and finally this method was proposed to determine the acceptable risk of crude oil tanks, and the number 3.45 x 10-4 was determined as the acceptable risk of the oil tank. The number 0.8 was suggested as a safety factor for the final determination of the internal inspection interval for 18 crude oil tanks.

    The internal inspection interval in China is a requirement of 5 to 7 years, which is very conservative and lower than the predicted service time of the tank. The internal inspection interval calculated by the Gumbel method is shorter than the RBI calculated method for tanks with a shorter internal inspection interval, this paper recommends a risk-based inspection method to predict Internal inspection distance should be used for crude oil tanks.

  • Contents & References of Providing a model in order to increase the accuracy of estimating the approximate rate of insurance risk

    List:

    Abstract 1.

    Introduction 2.

    Chapter One: General

    1. Statement of the problem 4.

    Research background 5.

    Necessity of conducting 8.

    Objective of the study 8

    1-4-1 Ideal goal 8

    1-4-2 Special objectives 8

    1-5 User goal 8

    1-6 Research questions 9

    1-7 Hypothesis 9

    1-8 Definitions and concepts 10

    Chapter Two: Getting to know the production process

    1-2 Getting to know the area under study 18. 2-2 History of Petrochemical Industry in Iran 18. Title 2.3 Introduction to Aria Sasol Polymers 19. 2-4 Description of Olefin Unit Process 20. 2-5 Di-Ethanizer Section 24. 2-5-1 Separation of carbon dioxide slices. 24. 2-5-2 Hydrogenation of acetylene. 25. 2-5-3 Catalyst regeneration. 26. Chapter 3: Materials and methods (work and research methods). 3-1 types of inspection techniques on risk enamel. 29.

    3-1-1 qualitative method.30

    3-1-1-1 ranking of units based on potential risk.31

    3-1-1-2 probability of failure.32

    3-1-1-3 consequences of failure.33

    3-1-1-4 results.37

    3-1-1-5 Determining critical areas that require more attention during inspection

    37

    3-1-2 Quantitative method 38

    3-1-2-1 Calculating the consequences of failure .40

    3.1-2-2-2-1 Employment Effects.40

    3-1-2-2-2 Influencing Effects .41

    3-1-2-2-2-3 environmental effects.

    3-1-2-1-2-4 Effects of financial damage caused by stopping production. 42

    3-1-2-1-3 Application of impact models to estimate consequences. 42

    3-1-2-2 Overview of the probability of failure. 43

    3-1-2-3 Risk calculation. 43

    3-1-3 Semi-quantitative method. 44

    3-1-3-1 consequence analysis

    3-1-3-2 probability analysis.48

    3-1-3-3 risk analysis.49

    3-2 the reason for presenting the methodology used in this research

    3-3 presentation (procedure) of the risk-based inspection methodology used

    in the studied industry 50. 3-3-1 flowchart introducing the method used for risk-based inspection management. 50. 3-3-2 key elements of the risk-based inspection management program and its steps. 53. 3-3-2-1-2 training and confirmation of personnel qualification for RBI implementation. 56. 3-3-2-2 second stage: collecting data required in the system. 57. 3-3-2-2-1 site-specific data sources (production units). 59.

    Page Number Title

    3-3-3-3 Third Step: Equipment Risk Determination process .60

    3-3-3-3-1 1-consequence of failure. 60

    3-3-3-1-1 1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 Temperature (Ft)

    3-3-2-3-1-3 production result factor (Cprod).64

    3-3-2-3-1-3-1 repair factor (Frep).64

    3-3-2-3-1-3-2 operability factor (Fop).65

    3-3-2-3-2 probability of failure.65

    3-3-2-4 The fourth step: ranking the equipment based on the amount of risk (Risk Ranking). 75 3-3-2-5 The fifth step: planning for the inspection 76 3-3-2-5-1 maximum inspection time interval (when the inspection should be done). 77 3-3-2-5-2 inspection methods (how the inspection should be done). 78

    3-3-2-5-3 list of inspection measures (checklist) / detailed evaluation.79

    3-3-2-6 The sixth step: risk management and reduction.79

    3-3-2-7 The seventh step: re-evaluation.80

    Title Page number

    Chapter Four: How to implement the proposed RIB model on the studied unit (Dram 406)

    First step: formation of the RBI team.82

    Second step: collecting information and data.82

    Third step: determining the risk of equipment.85

    Step four: ranking equipment based on their risk.86

    Step Fifth: planning for inspection. 86

    Sixth step: risk reduction management. 87

    Seventh step: re-evaluation. 88

    Chapter 5: research results

    5-1 conclusions from the presented methodology. 91

    Chapter 6: interpretation of results

    6-1 summary and the general interpretation of the results. 120

    6-2 suggestions. 123

    .

    Source:

    - Javadpour Siros, Hashemi Seyed Javad, Nazarnejad Mohammad "Inspection technology based on publication risk", Asr Javan, 2007.

    2- Faramz Prizi, "Looking at Ariassol Polymer Company, a successful partnership in the petrochemical industry", published by Arman Andishan Vira, second edition, spring 2013.

    3- Pourmohamed Kamran, Hamid Amirian, "Description of the process of the olefin unit of the 9th olefin complex", winter 2013.

    [4] Hashemi. Seyed Javad, Implementation of risk based inspection methodology in managing integrity of Abadan Refinery pressurized production facilities, The2nd International conference on technical inspection and NDT, October 2008

    [5] Han Kejiang, Shuai Jian, Xu Xuerui, "Risk-based inspection for large-scale crude oil tanks", Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 25 (2012) 166-175

    [6] Yan Tingjun, Risk Based Inspection on the equipment of low density polyethylene, Journal of Procedia Engineering 15 (2011) 1145-1148

    [7] Hwanga Wen-Tsung, Wen Tiena Shiaw, Tsa Chih-Hung, Study of a risk-based piping inspection guideline system, Avalebel online at sciencedirect, ISA Transaction 46 (2006) 119-126

    [8] Chien. Chi-Hui, Hung Chen. Chun, Chao.YubJ, A strategy for the risk-based inspection of pressure safety valves, Journal of Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94 (2009) 810-818

    [9] American Petroleum Institute, First Edition May 2000: "Risk Based Inspection Base Resource Document", API 581.

    [10] Li, H. B, "Development of large-size oil tanks. Petroleum Refinery Engineering", (1996), 26(6). 24e26

    [11] Conley M, Integrating risk-based inspection into risk management plans, Process Saf prog 2005; 24(4):236-43

    [12] Bai, M., & Liu, Z. W, "Economic benefit analysis of large-scale oil tank", Petroleum Engineering Construction, (1995) 1(6), 8e10.

    [13] American Petroleum Institute, First Edition 2008: "Risk Based Inspection Base Resource Document", AP1 581.

    [14] Han, K. & J Shuai, J. "The remaining life prediction and INTII analysis for large-scale crude oil storage tank", In Proceedings of the 8th international pipeline conference, (2010), Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

    [15] LI Bing, SONG Guo-yu, Application of RBI Technology on Hydrogenation Unit, Journal of Liaoning University of Petroleum & Chemical Technology, 2010.

    [16] American Petroleum Institute, Second Edition November 2009: "Risk-Based Inspection", API 580.

    [17] Sasolburg Site Procedure, SSP-EM007 Rev.1, "Risk-Based Inspection"

    [18] Chang RR. Study for remaining life estimation of localized and high temperature corrosion and inspection strategy for piping of refinery plant, Doctoral dissertation. Yunlin (Taiwan): Institute of Engineering Science & Technology, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology; 2004.

    [19] Baughman H, Eckhardt P, Leonard CR, Merrick EA, Risk-based methods to optimize maintenance work scope. Oil & Gas Journal, 1999;97:47-52.

    [20] Chang RR. Study for remaining life estimation of localized and high temperature corrosion and inspection strategy for piping of refinery plant, Doctoral dissertation. Yunlin (Taiwan): Institute of Engineering Science & Technology, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology; 2004. [21] Tsao CC. Establishing an auditing guide of extension and alternative inspection for pressure vessels, Final audit report. Executive Yuan (Taiwan), Institute of Labor Safety and Health, Council of Labor Affairs; 2002. p. 38-43.

    [22] Urbanik SA, Evaluating relief valve reliability when extending the test and maintenance interval, Journal of Process SafProg 2004; 23(3): 191-6.

    [23] Haddara MR, Khan FI, Risk-based maintenance of ethylene oxide production facilities, Journal of Hazardous Materials A 2004;108:147-59.

    [24] Mahoney D. Large property damage losses m the hydrocarbon-chemical industries, A thirty-year review. 20th ed. New York: M & M Protection Consultants: 2003. p. 23-38.

    [25] Chien.Chi-Hui, Chen Chun-Hung Chao.YubJ, Journal of Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94 (2009) 810-818

    [26] Camburn J, Saunders KL, Risk-based inspection of relief valves. In: Proceed-ings or PVP2008 on ASME pressure vessels and piping conference, Vancouver Canada, 2006.

    [27] Vesely WE. Principles of resource effectiveness and regulatory effectiveness for risk informed applications: reducing burdens by improving effectiveness. Reliab Engng Syst Safety 1999;63:283-92.

    [28] Fitness for service, American Petroleum Institute, API Recommended Practice 579-1. June 2007.

    [29] Maneesh Singh, Tore Markeset, Amethodology for risk-based inspection planning of oil and gas pipes based on fuzzy logic framework, Journal of Engineering Failure Analysis, 16 (2009) 2098-2113.

    .

Providing a model in order to increase the accuracy of estimating the approximate rate of insurance risk
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