Dissertation for Master's Degree
Economic Sciences Department
Bahman 92
Abstract:
The main objective of this research is to estimate the variables that determine the intensity of trade for member countries of the Organization of Islamic Conference in the export of non-oil goods. For this purpose, the trade intensity has been evaluated and analyzed mutually and according to the 21 divisions of the H.S classification during the period of 2000-2010 for 56 OIC member countries based on the econometric method. The results show that despite the many efforts that have been made so far to improve and increase trade cooperation among the OIC member countries, the intensity And the depth of trade between countries is 27.5% on average. While the results of the estimation of complementary trade among member countries indicate that each country has complementary trade with 42% of OIC member countries on average. Also, the most important factors affecting the low trade intensity are, in order of distance, high tariff rate, low economic growth of the countries under investigation, and the size of the market, the population of the countries, membership in regional groups and the presence of complementary trade are among the factors that determine the trade intensity of the countries in the export of non-oil goods.
Another important result of the plan from the perspective of Iran's cooperation with OIC member countries is that Iran exports non-oil goods. It has a high trade intensity and complementary trade with the OIC member countries, especially with 32 of the 55 countries studied, and in this respect, it ranks fourth after the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Lebanon. The number of 19 and 13 OIC member countries with a percentage of goods to Iran respectively have a high intensity of trade and complementary trade.
One of the recommendations of this research is that the Muslim countries located in the Middle East can form the core of the common market and go through the development stages of convergence to create a common Islamic market based on the findings of the plans of the countries of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Emirates, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, Yemen. and Jordan have good commercial cooperation fields with each other and they can attract Pakistan and Malaysia by creating the initial cores of creating a common Islamic market in the later stages of Indonesia. For this reason, first by stating the problem and then while reviewing the theories related to regionalism, its development process is explained, in addition to the necessity, The importance and basic questions of the current research are examined. Then, research hypotheses including an independent hypothesis and several specific hypotheses related to the research topic are presented. In the rest of the chapter, the objectives of the research are clearly stated. At the end of the chapter, the research method includes the method of gathering information, Data analysis and characteristics of the statistical population are examined. In this way, this chapter provides the general framework and program for conducting the research.
1-2- Research framework
One of the most significant developments in the world trade system after the mid-1990s has been the increase in regional trade agreements [1] (RTAs). The number of agreements notified to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which was about 50 cases until 1990, exceeded 285 cases in 2008, and estimates show that the number will reach more than 350 cases by 2014. [2]
RTAs are an important exception to the principle of WTO non-discrimination. According to the WTO rule, the member countries of an RTA can trade among themselves using preferential tariffs and easier conditions for market access compared to the conditions applied to other WTO member countries. As a result, WTO member countries that do not have a share in RTA, participate in these markets.
RTAs, by definition, are groups of countries (regardless of whether they are only from a single geographical area) that are formed with the aim of reducing trade barriers between member countries, and depending on their level of convergence, RTA can be broadly divided into five categories:
Agreements Preferential trade [3] (PTA, Free Trade Agreement [4] (FTA, Customs Union [5] (CU), Common Market [6] and Economic Union). [7] PTA is an agreement in which member countries apply lower trade barriers to goods produced within the union and each member country has some flexibility regarding the extent of reducing tariff barriers. FTA is a special case of PTA in which member countries completely remove both tariff and non-tariff barriers from their own countries. In most cases, countries do not completely remove trade barriers A customs union (CU) provides deeper convergence compared to an FTA, because unlike an FTA where member states are free to maintain a separate level of tariff barriers on goods imported from non-member countries, in a customs union member states have a single tariff. Common Foreign [8] (CET) are also applied to goods imported from foreign countries. CET can be different for different goods, but it cannot be different in relation to different union partners. PTA, FTA, CU in trade techniques called ”shallow convergence[9]” are read.
Except for these arrangements shallow, There are two types of "regional combinations" that provide "deep convergence" [10] “ are The first stage of ”deep convergence” It is called common market in which the member countries try to coordinate some institutional arrangements and commercial and financial rules and regulations among themselves. A common market also implies the free movement of factors of production, i.e. the removal of controls on the free movement of labor and capital. The final level of ”deep convergence” ”Economic Union” in which countries implement common economic policies and regulations and use a single currency. [11] Among regional trade agreements, the vast majority of them are shallow convergence agreements. In other words, most of them are RTA or FTA. In contrast, there are only a few customs unions, common markets and deep economic unions around the world. Most of these agreements are deep convergence in Europe. For example, the Nimet Master Treaty and the European Union Single Market Program are examples of deep convergence projects. The Central American Common Market Agreement [12] (CACM) are examples of preferential trade agreements. However, most of the new preferential trade agreements are typically free trade zone agreements. The North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) and the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) are examples of FTAs, and Mercosur is an example of a customs union. The World Trade Organization (2008) has prominently shown that two broad trends are emerging in the current wave of regional agreements[13]. Many countries that have long relied on the multilateral trade regime are increasingly joining regional agreements to increase trade. The second important trend is that there are currently negotiations on the creation of a number of significant continental trade blocs, such as the "Free Trade Zone of the Americas" [14] “ (FTAA) or ”area European Free Trade Mediterranean“ is in progress It seems that as soon as these negotiations are finalized, a significant percentage of the world trade flow will be diverted through these trade blocs.
An important question is why countries tend to agree on regional trade agreements? The first one is the traditional explanation about the welfare effects through trade liberalization and the subsequent benefits from trade at the regional level. But this theory does not adequately explain the current trend of regionalism in the 1990s.