Thesis Master's thesis in the field of economic sciences
October 1392
Abstract
In economic literature, population, both in terms of level and size and in terms of its growth rate, is one of the important variables affecting the economic growth and power of countries. Therefore, the present research firstly analyzed the effects of population size on the process of economic growth, and secondly, analyzed the possibility of the existence of an optimal population growth rate and its optimal amount and path, for each economy in general and for the Iranian economy in particular.
In this regard, in order to analyze the theory of the existence of an optimal population rate for the economy and its conditions and amount, it analyzed and criticized Samuelson's (1958 and 1975) theories about the optimal population growth rate and the so-called "good luck theorem" is In order to analyze the effect of population on economic growth, two models of scale effect and market size effect have been introduced, explained and analyzed. The results of the criticism and analysis of the optimal population rate theory and the lucky theorem show that a minimum value can be specified as optimal for the population growth rate, but a maximum value cannot be assigned to the above rate. This is because by increasing the population growth rate from the mentioned minimum value, the welfare of the society can be increased, and therefore, it is not possible to set an optimal maximum value for this rate. Based on this result, using MATLAB software, the effect of increasing population growth rate on welfare and intertemporal consumption for Iran's economy has been depicted. The results of the scale effect model analysis show that population growth has a positive effect on the discovery of innovations over time and is even necessary for this. Also, according to the market size effect model, population growth accelerates economic growth through two ways of increasing the individual productivity of each labor force and the effect of spillover of technology to the economy.
Key words: economic growth, Iqbali's theorem, the golden law of capital accumulation, the pattern of overlapping generations, vital interest rate, market size effect, scale effect. Chapter 1: Research overview
1-1) Introduction
The study of the role of population and its effects on all dimensions of life, especially on the economic status of different societies, has been the focus of scholars for a long time. Two centuries have passed since Malthus' controversy. According to him, population growth will eventually lead to poverty and misery of human society, because he believed that the earth's resources are not able to feed this amount of people. From the point of view of this pessimistic classical economist, the population and its growth were against economic development and growth. In economic literature, there are two different views in this field: the first view belongs to anti-natalists[1]. This point of view aims to show that there is a limit in existence that cannot bear a large population and ultimately it is the human beings who suffer from this growth. In this view, production is a function of resources, and despite limited land resources, this production may not be sufficient to meet the needs of a large human population.
However, against this thinking, there are natalists [2] or supporters of population increase, who consider the population as the cause of growth and development and do not consider land resources as a constraint for this development. In this view, human abilities can eliminate the limitations of resources and raw materials. They are of the opinion that man is able to overcome natural boundaries and limitations with his innovation and thus increase production to any level. With the growth and increase of the human population, innovative projects also increase, because the human capital has increased and more people can innovate with their creativity and realize more production and more economic growth with limited factors and resources.
The present research, in the form of explaining several economic models, will analyze the effect of population on economic growth and development.In addition, the theory of optimal population rate is analyzed and the conditions and value of this rate are determined. 1-2) Description and expression of the research problem Economics as the science of optimal allocation of resources deals with issues related to production, distribution and consumption. One of the important elements in economics is the analysis of human economic behavior; Therefore, the analysis of human economic behavior and the investigation of individual and social aspects of these behaviors are of great importance. In fact, the main subject of economics is the analysis of the behavior of economic factors (including humans) in the fields of consumption, distribution and production of goods and services. In this regard, the branch of microeconomics examines individual human behavior as a consumer, producer – and the topic of the branch of macroeconomics is the analysis of behaviors and the cumulative characteristics of the economy, resulting from the collective behaviors of humans. Therefore, population [3] - meaning the cumulative quantity of human beings - has always been one of the important topics of economics and its impact on economic variables, including economic growth [4], which means the development and expansion of economic facilities and capacities in a time horizon, has been analyzed in the opinions and opinions of economic thinkers in the economic literature (Abd al-Malaki, 2009).
One of the most challenging traditional economic theories regarding the population limit and its effects, the pessimistic theory It is Malthus. In 1803, he raised the issue of the geometric growth of the population, in contrast to the arithmetic growth of food, and the possibility of food shortage as a result of this fundamental difference in the growth rate. In Malthus's theory, total production increases over time. This increase will cause more population growth, which is caused by more births and less deaths; But due to the fixedness of land as the basic factor of production (at least at that time), the final productivity of another basic factor, that is, human, will be reduced (Avery[5], 2005).
Thinking and worrying about the effects of the existence of the so-called extra people, on the supply of land, food and other needed resources and the environment has been important even in ancient times, the early tribes through abortion Fetus and infanticide (especially killing girls) tried to fight this fear of increasing population at the family and clan level (Dalali Esfahani, 2006). And even elders such as Plato, St. Augustine[6], Lacritos[7] and others were worried about the increase in the depletion of soil and minerals, deforestation and issues like this (Schumpeter[8], 1954).
Over time, new researches on this subject actually expanded with the classical economic theory in the 17th century. At this time, when William Petty[9] is considered as the father of economics, he examined issues that even became the basis of the opinions of many famous people after him. Among them, we can mention the example of making a watch, which he deduced that with the increase in the population, every industry will become easier and more convenient, and the product will also be of better quality and cheaper (Petty, 1682). Adam Smith's theory[10] about the division of labor is famous about the needle factory. He believed that eighteen production jobs can be formed during the production of a needle, which of course implicitly requires the size of the population (Adam Smith, 1778). Population increase was mentioned. In these views, the emergence of economies of scale, the acceleration of technological growth, progressive institutional changes, cheaper communications and transportation, and the easier development of social capital were presented as some positive results of population growth. For example, Godwin [11] (1820) believed in social institutions, and in contrast to Malthus's theory, he said that if society knows its situation well, laws Natural will not cause restrictions. Everett [12] also believed in the weakness of Malthus's theory according to the experimental evidence in the United States, he believed that the increase in population in a certain area causes an urgent division of labor, which in a way, creates new solutions, which in turn leads to the improvement of various industrial methods and rapid progress in various branches of science and art, this effect is actually the result of improving productivity. It is caused by the division of labor (Everett, 1970).
Opinions in this sense went so far that in the view of another group of economists such as Lucas, Cramer, McNicol, etc., no negative economic role can be imagined for the population.