Dissertation to receive a master's degree
in the field of environmental economics
September 1389
Abstract:
In this research, the relationship between gross domestic product, energy intensity, population, urbanization rate and CO2 emissions in OPEC member countries between 1995-2004 was investigated.
In this regard, with Using the econometric method and panel data, we estimated equations to investigate the relationship between GDP, energy intensity, population, urbanization rate and CO2 emissions. The results of this research and the coefficients of the studied variables showed that the effect of increasing GDP and energy intensity on CO2 emissions is positive and significant. The results showed that the increase in population and the rate of urbanization have a positive effect on the amount of CO2 gas emissions. Also, the effects of the increase in the amount of CO2 gas emissions, energy intensity, population and urbanization rate on GDP were investigated and the results indicated that only energy intensity has a negative relationship with GDP and the relationship of other variables used in the model with GDP is positive. All the investigated variables were statistically significant except for CO2 gas emissions.
Keywords: energy intensity, gross domestic product, economic growth, CO2 gas emissions, urbanization rate, sustainable development, OPEC member countries
Chapter One
Overviews
Chapter One
"Overviews"
Introduction:
Currently, the energy issue and its economic effects for energy producing and consuming countries such as OPEC member countries [1] from different aspects It has taken on wider dimensions. On the one hand, there are concerns about the reduction of reserves of energy resources Fossil and their consumption are increasing in the countries of the world, and on the other hand, the harmful effects of environmental pollutants caused by energy consumption, especially hydrocarbon resources, have become more visible on the environment.
The country of Iran as one of the studied OPEC member countries and a growing country with rich and extensive energy resources and the existence of large oil reservoirs, huge underground mines and potential energy potential is considered as an example of the growth model with pressure on natural resources. can be Therefore, planning for energy consumption is very important and should be done very carefully. Energy consumption is its impact on the release of environmental pollutants in a country and region. The volume of consumed energy and the composition of consumed energy will have a definite effect on the process of creating these pollutants. The continuous emission of gases caused by the combustion of different types of energy and the accumulation of these gases are one of the main factors of intensifying greenhouse effects and increasing the average temperature of the world. These gases, especially Co2, o3, N2o, Nox, are the precursors of ozone (o3), and Co affects the concentration of methane in the Earth's atmosphere, so these pollutants are also among greenhouse gases. Currently, the economic conditions of the world are such that even in the most advanced countries, the production and emission of greenhouse gases such as Co2 continues and increases. As we know, the increase in GDP is the most important factor in the total demand for energy services in the economic literature, followed by the production of pollution. The increase in GDP also affects the composition of fuel and energy consumption and therefore the type of pollution. According to the forecast of the International Energy Agency in 2008, the increase of GDP in many countries that are not members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [2] will happen in the future. Especially in Asia and the Middle East, as well as OPEC member countries, the main reason The increase in energy demand in recent years has been and will continue to increase their GDP. In this regard, considering the close relationship between gross domestic product and energy consumption, we use their ratio, which represents the term energy intensity[3], and examine the relationship between it and gross domestic product and CO2 emissions in OPEC member countries. Until the 1970s, the general perception was that energy resources were abundant, and as a result there was little concern about the continuity of supply and its effects on economic life.After the sharp increase in oil prices in 1973 and the developments After the oil prices continued to rise, a strong concern was created especially among the policy makers and planners of major energy consuming countries, and the discussion of energy economy quickly opened its place in scientific and executive circles. Energy is not only the most important input in the industrial production sector, i.e. industry, petrochemical, power plants, etc., but it is also an essential commodity in the non-production sector such as the housing sector. Despite having rich oil and gas reserves, Iran's domestic market is facing an increasing demand for energy carriers. Energy carriers play a vital role in the country's energy portfolio and are considered one of the main factors of economic growth and development. As a result, the proper management of energy on both the supply and demand sides in the long term seems necessary and vital. According to the results obtained from global surveys in 2004, Iran is the eighth country in the world in terms of energy intensity with an energy intensity of about 956 tons per million dollars of gross domestic product and ranks sixteenth among countries with medium economies. It should be noted that this year, the average energy intensity in the world was about 250 tons per million dollars of GDP and 850 tons per million dollars in countries with medium economies.
In Iran, the relative abundance of energy resources has caused that energy consumption and intensity be higher compared to countries with similar structure and less energy resources. In other words, energy goods justify the somewhat high per capita consumption and energy intensity in Iran. Of course, due to the abundance and richness of Iran's energy resources, this country can have an advantage in energy-intensive industries and economic activities, and even high energy intensity may seem logical to some extent. But statistics and information show that energy intensity in the country is higher compared to most OPEC member countries. Although the share of natural gas (with less pollution) in the country's total energy consumption has increased in recent years, it should be noted that, in general, a high level of energy intensity can have negative effects on the environment. By adopting appropriate energy supply and demand policies, it is possible to remove old machines, engines and equipment and replace them with new machines, especially in energy intensive sectors, i.e. domestic and commercial, transportation, industry and power generation, while increasing energy efficiency and reducing energy intensity. (Energy Balance Sheet, 2013)
In general, several reasons for the increase in energy consumption and intensity in Iran in recent years are: population growth, inefficient energy management, low efficiency of devices, and a high tendency to consume more energy, especially in the production sectors. Also, energy is an effective welfare factor in the household sector, and an important political and political tool at all levels of the society's macroeconomics, so that this production-welfare factor is used in many cases as a tool to implement coercive policies in countries. Due to this, the proper use of energy should always be considered as an important principle of macroeconomic policies of the society. Since significant parts of the energy portfolio are non-renewable energies (such as oil and gas), for those countries where oil and gas are considered the most important national wealth (such as OPEC member countries), the income from oil and gas exports should be able to accelerate and facilitate the flow of long-term investments in various sectors of the macro economy. Using the available statistics and information, the average annual growth of the world's GDP per capita during the period of 1999-2004 was about 4.8 percent. Meanwhile, the average annual growth of this important economic component in Iran is 8.9% and has reached from 1588 dollars in 1999 to 2432 dollars in 2004.
Energy consumption as an important production factor can play an effective role in increasing the GDP. Therefore, it is very important to examine the relationship between energy consumption and GDP, especially in economic sectors. The explanation of this relationship leads to the introduction of another variable called energy intensity, and the relationship between them helps clarify the policies of the country's energy sector.
Growth of GDP is a process whose main axis is the increase of GDP.