To obtain a master's degree
Department of economic development and planning
Esfand 90
Abstract:
Predicting the amount of investment required to achieve the goals of each program (for example, 6% economic growth targeted in the third development program) is one of the most important issues of any development program. The amount of investment realized in each program is closely related to economic growth in the same program. The planning experience has shown that in most cases, the failure to realize economic growth is due to the lack of necessary investments in the economy.
There are many models in the economic literature to examine the performance of economic growth and the investment required to ensure the aforementioned growth. Of course, one of the models that can simultaneously examine economic growth and the investment required to realize it is the dynamic data-output model, which is used in this research. The statistical bases considered in this research are the data-revenue table of 1380 and the net investment to prepare the matrix of inter-sector capital coefficients of ten by ten. Using the GBX matrix, the required sector investment was obtained and then compared with the realized investment in each year of the third development plan. The results show that the amount of investment realized in some sectors is more and in some sectors it is less than the amount of investment estimated in the third development plan. Chapter 1 Generalities 1-1 Introduction Economic growth and development is one of the goals that most countries, including Iran, are strongly pursuing. In most countries of the world, especially in developing countries, important planning tools are used to achieve the desired economic growth faster, and the set of economic, social and cultural changes are considered within the framework of a coherent program with specific goals. The idea of ??economic planning through government intervention in Iran can be traced back to the middle of the 19th century, but the inspiration, influence and model of planning[1] in Iran began in 1313, followed by planning efforts in 1316. After a 12-year break, real planning began in February 1328. During the period of 1328-1357 (the period before the Islamic Revolution), five consecutive programs were approved and implemented, and the sixth program was prepared, but was not approved. Economic planning in Iran is still implemented at the macro level.
Programs before the Islamic Revolution: The first and second programs were qualitative. The third program was of the Harud-Domar type, and the fourth program emphasized the import substitution strategy and used the static data-output model. The fifth five-year plan was actually a long-term plan. This program used long-term modeling in the form of Keynes' economic variables and at the level of sectors, employment status, and especially income distribution, not only used the data-output model, but also benefited from the social accounting matrix technique [2] for the first time. The sixth plan was also designed as a long-term plan. At the level of departments and compatibility between them, they used the static data-output model [3].
Programs after the revolution:
The first five-year program of economic, social and cultural development in the period of 1372-1368 started with the selection of economic liberalization strategy. The main goal of this program was to change the prevailing negative economic trends in favor of creating economic growth in the country and provide a platform for continued growth in the future by investing the government in the field of rebuilding the damage caused by the war and making maximum use of the existing capacities. In this direction, economic growth was considered one of the most basic needs of national development, and economic policies effective on increasing production were put on the agenda. Among the programs after the revolution, the biggest investment estimation error is related to the first development program [4]. The atmosphere and conditions governing the formulation of the first development plan were the conditions of the end of the imposed war and the destruction of the production bases due to the war and the economic embargo of the advanced countries during the war years, which had led to several years of investment reduction. The average annual growth of investment during the years of the first plan was 13.3 percent, which is higher than the predicted figure of the program, which was about 11.6 percent [5]. This issue is indicative of the underestimation of investment, which, of course, still did not achieve the economic growth intended by the program with this increase in investment, which also has its own reasons.In this investment distribution program, it is estimated that the total investment is obtained from the sum of these investments for agriculture, oil and gas, consumer and intermediate industries, construction, water and electricity, transportation and other services. Since total investment and government investment are known, private investments are calculated as residuals from Ando difference. Although the investment function in this program was designed based on the principle of acceleration, it was considered independent of the money market according to the conditions of Iran's economy, and this implies that the variables of the money market had no effect on the country's investment process. In this program, economic growth and development was considered one of the main goals of the country. Adaptation in the second development program was better than the first program. From a technical and technical point of view, the model of this program regarding investment includes the investment of agriculture, industry and mining, oil and gas, water and electricity, construction, transportation, communication, real estate and other services sectors, where the total investment is made up of the total investment of the sectors. In the second development plan, due to the exploitation of unused capacities in the years of the first plan, the economic growth trend was reduced; As a result, achieving the desired economic growth in this program required investment in new economic fields. Capital formation in the second program due to severe inflation in the early years of the program along with a decrease in the real interest rate led to a decrease in private savings and created conditions of great uncertainty to reduce the investment process. [6]
The structural problems that plagued the first and second development programs, the social view of economic issues in the country and the policy of de-escalation in international relations and the improvement of relations in OPEC and the presentation of the economic organization plan in 1377, led to the formation of a model for reforming the economic structure with a domestic approach in the third program. It was developed (1383-1379). This program is based on the strategy of economic reforms based on the "competitive economy development" approach. It was designed and developed through the movement towards the liberalization of the economic system along with the formation of a comprehensive social security system and legal and institutional reforms and the abolition of monopolies to provide opportunities for the private sector to participate and reduce the state's ownership.
Making a decision on how to allocate scarce resources between consumer and capital goods is one of the most important decisions that has a direct effect on the economic growth and development of the country. Undoubtedly, without proportional growth of investment, production and employment cannot grow sustainably. The decision to invest in an economic system is a complex issue and theoretical and statistical studies confirm its complexity. Also, investment in different economic sectors is different and the way of capital allocation in these sectors[7] depends on different factors. Iran is also a country that has suffered from a lack of investment and production, and therefore requires an accurate estimate of investment to determine the target growth. In this regard, in this thesis, an attempt is made to estimate the investment required to realize that growth, according to the target growth in the program. In other words, a comparison between the investment required to reach to economic growth in different years of the third plan. For this purpose, the third development program has been selected, which has complete information in this regard.
This thesis consists of 5 parts:
In the first chapter, general information about the thesis will be stated.
In the second chapter, the data-output patterns will be examined, then the applications of the dynamic data-output model will be briefly explained.
In the third chapter, the researches conducted in the field of static and dynamic data-output patterns will be mentioned. and the data-receipt tables prepared in Iran will be examined.
In the fourth chapter, firstly, how to prepare the inter-sector capital coefficients matrix, then the potential growth rate will be calculated, and finally, the required sector investment will be calculated using the sector capital coefficient matrix and will be compared with the sector investment made in the third development plan.
The fifth chapter is dedicated to the summary and conclusion.
1-2 research problem:
Predicting the amount of investment required to achieve the goals of each program (for example, 6% economic growth targeted in the third development program) is one of the most important issues of each development program.