Master's Thesis in the field of Maritime Studies, Sea Transportation
(Study of Shahid Rajaei Port Container Terminal)
February 1390
Abstract
In this research, the container traffic forecasting scenarios of Shahid Rajaei Port have been researched in order to analyze the capacity of that port to absorb and transfer part of the potential demands of that port in 1404. In this research, with the help of examining trends and events in the fields of economy, trade and marine transportation, the developments of shipping, port and port for the transfer of some of the containers passing through this port have been proposed under five scenarios. The container traffic forecasting scenario of Shahid Rajaei port, by means of the scenario method, which is used to visualize the future in conditions of uncertainty, the situation of imaginable futures is Based on three main themes including; It has been expanded geographically, technically and economically. The results of the proposed scenarios show that the whole Shahid Rajaei port container demand Based on The general model defined in 1404 under five scenarios optimistic, optimistic-moderate, median, median – Pessimistic and pessimistic will be equal to 43830470, 17511835, 7218285, 4453726 and 3062277 TEUs, respectively, and on the other hand, the number of gantry cranes, cranes, cranes, the number of docks and the land of docks in the event of some of the proposed scenarios, It does not respond to the demands of container traffic of that port in 1404. Chapter 1: Generalities Introduction 1-1 Introduction Transportation is always considered one of the most important parts related to any production and service activities and is considered one of the effective factors in the economic growth and development of any country. Among the different sectors of transportation (land, air and sea), the maritime sector is considered the most important sector due to economic reasons, including the low cost of transportation compared to other sectors, as well as its very high volume and extraordinary capacity. Due to the very high share of the maritime transport sector in saving costs, this sector often has an active role in inducing its reforms and demands to other sectors. The transportation network, especially in the maritime sector, has always been exposed to environmental changes due to the expansion of global communications and international exchanges. These changes can be considered as technological, political, economic and social forms, each of which can in some way affect the functioning of other sectors as well as the transportation network (Gharavi, 2011). One of the most important technological changes is the emergence of the container and the expansion of its use on a large scale in the international transportation network. Due to its special advantages, the container has quickly infiltrated the transportation network and has forced all the countries of the world to reform their transportation system. Containerization means the movement of cargo in containers, a system that has progressed in the sea and on land. And the sea transportation of the world in order to containerize the cargoes, in order to meet the import and export needs of each country, without a doubt, containerization is considered as the main feature of the economic development of countries and constitutes a significant part of the economy of each country. The importance of this issue can be mentioned when today More than 90% of commercial goods are moved by sea transportation, and in this way, the share of container transportation is increasing. Although it is almost impossible to determine the financial value of cargo in container transportation, the United Nations Development and Trade Fund has estimated its value to be about 5% of the total world trade (Safarzadeh et al., 2016).
At the beginning of this chapter, a brief explanation about the importance of forecasting the container traffic of Shahid Port Rajaei is presented and then the objectives of the research are described briefly and the methods of achieving these objectives will also be specified.
2-1 statement of the problem
Iran has a special position in the region with about 3000 kilometers of maritime borders and is extremely important in the maritime transport sector in terms of its connection with the waters of the world. On the other hand, being on the path of world trade, it has a very privileged position that can be the source of a lot of economic income. Also, Iran for various reasons, including maritime geography, having a convenient location between European and Central Asian countries, access to the Persian Gulf and the Persian Gulf Oman in the south and the Caspian Sea in the north, and being on the route of the north-south and east-west corridors, is considered as the four world trade routes (Iran Ports Master Plan, 2013). Therefore, in order to achieve a greater share in this industry (in terms of tonnage and income), the country of Iran has no choice but to strengthen its potential capacities and implement plans to develop the transportation network, create related infrastructures, capital It will not have the investment, management and development of equipment and human resources in the ports, and since according to the results of the country's ports comprehensive plan, the operational capacity of the country's ports will reach 160 million tons in 2014, half of which (7 million TEUs) will be in the form of containers, so knowing the factors and factors affecting container traffic in the country's ports and considering a wide range of possible modes in container operations in the coming years in order to use the capacity and The country's potential in this industry and planning to create the necessary infrastructure to achieve its goals are very important. Undoubtedly, in this framework of study and research regarding the possible future states of container traffic in the country's ports as a strategic plan in the marine transportation sector and especially container transportation, it can include all economic, social, cultural, political and national development aspects with a view to the country's twenty-year development vision document [1], so that all investments in the development of this sector with greater coordination of devices and within the framework of specific and prioritized goals will result in It should be more desirable and lead to the construction, development and equipping of ports in the necessary dimensions, the use of advanced equipment and finally the use of modern information technology and institutionalization for the proper acceptance of cargoes, increasing the amount of transit, transhipment, import and export, and especially non-oil exports, in order to achieve a vital thing in increasing the growth of the national economy and sustainable development. Since the role of ports is very sensitive and decisive in the country's political, economic and logistic equations in the 21st century, therefore, in order to create and maintain regional goods movement corridors in the country, we must equip our ports with appropriate capacity, modern and advanced equipment, safe and fast, and these goals will not be achieved without planning and having sufficient information about the possible modes of movement of cargoes (Iran Ports Comprehensive Plan, 2013).
Therefore, in this research, we seek to determine the volume of potential container traffic demands of Shahid Rajaei port in different states. In this research, the goal of foresight is not prediction based on econometric models of the future and the past, but this research tries to predict the future of this industry in 1404 by making changes in the effective factors in the shipping and container transportation industry, so that in this way, different modes of development or the creation of new infrastructures in order to increase the performance of the country's ports are on the agenda of port planners. Considering that the prerequisite for such a goal is to have correct and comprehensive planning, and no planning without Study and research will not be realized, and considering that 1404 is the year of the end of the country's vision document, therefore, forecasting the container traffic of Shahid Rajaei port from 1390 to 1404 with a different approach according to the main influencing variables can be a prerequisite and a basis for planning in the next fifteen years of sea transportation in that port.
1-3 Importance, Necessity and Application of Results
Considering that planning is considered the basis of economic development of any country and in order to create any plan, an image, however crude and brief, is needed, and since foresight is a subject that is specifically intertwined with the current changing world and therefore forces researchers to logically face possible opportunities and threats, a future that is ambiguous, but coherent. predict based on past and present trends and events.